The Hindu Business Line : US strategic interests — Targeting China, wooing India

Two US reports see China as a threat, as Beijing "continues to invest heavily in its military," and as that country emerges a voracious consumer of oil. These reports also see India as a balancing power. But the more important question is, will Washington change its stand on the Kyoto Protocol that it is yet to ratify?

IN RECENT days, two reports have been released in the US which throw some light on Washington's perception of that country's national security issues. These reports are of interest to Indians because of two reasons: First, the reports tend to give an accurate enough idea of what the broad contours of US national security policy will be like in the years to come and, more important, India's place in that policy; and, second, of how India's national security is likely to be affected by Washington's implementation of policies connected to its own security considerations.

The first of these two reports is the Quadrennial Defence Review Report of the US Department of Defence (dated February 6), which plots the principal areas of security concern for the US and chalks out a strategy of countering possible areas of concern. The point of interest for us in the 125-page report is the selection of China as the main source of security concern and the role that India will probably play (in Washington's scheme of things) in containing that threat.

Volatile region still

If the protection and enhancement of supply lines of energy resources form an important element of US national security, as in fact they should, then the oil supply points of West Asia should form a crucial part of the national security plan. As is evident from the report, they do but clearly they have not been given the pride of place in the entire security scenario.

To quote the report: "Many countries in the Middle East find themselves at strategic crossroads. Democracy is emerging in Iraq, giving political voice to people who suffered for decades under a ruthless tyranny. Freedom is also taking root in Lebanon. Libya has decided to give up its nuclear program. Many countries in the region are acting in partnership with the United States to combat terrorist networks. Although positive developments have been made, the region remains volatile."

While West Asia has been given this rather smug treatment, the "major and emerging powers" — Russia, India and China — have been seen differently, being described as "key factors in determining the international security environment of the 21st century". Even here there is a gradation. Russia has been correctly portrayed as a country in transition, "unlikely to pose a military threat to the United States or its allies on the same scale or intensity as the Soviet Union during the Cold War". However, and not surprisingly, the Russian President, Mr Vladimir Putin, has injected some unease into the State Department with the result that the report draws attention to the concern raised by "the erosion of democracy in Russia, the curtailment of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and freedom of the press, the centralisation of political power and limits on economic freedom".

India is, of course, the new star on the horizon for Washington, and the defence review, drawing attention to the July 2005 resolve of the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, and the US President, Mr George Bush, drops broad hints that India and the US will cooperate as part of a "global partnership that will provide leadership in areas of mutual concern and interest", the basis of the alliance being the "shared values" the two countries enjoy as "long-standing, multi-ethnic democracies".

Crucial ally

It is more than apparent that, in the broader scheme of strengthening its own national security, Washington would expect New Delhi to play a crucial role as an ally. In one place, the report says that the US "will work to ensure that all major and emerging powers are integrated as constructive actors and stakeholders into the international system" and that one of the avenues through which this objective can be reached is to engage in "security cooperation and engagement activities including joint training exercises, senior staff talks, and officer and foreign internal defence training to increase understanding, strengthen allies and partners, and accurately communicate US objectives and intent".

It is important for New Delhi to realise that China is the centrepiece of the US threat-perception and that, in a very real sense, any partnership between the US and India will willy-nilly draw New Delhi into the vortex of Sino-US strategic rivalry — which has only just begun in all its ramifications. Interestingly, the US Defence review report does not make any bones about the fact — after of course making the customary noises about expectations that Beijing will play "a constructive, peaceful role in the Asia-Pacific region and . . . serve as a partner in addressing common security challenges, including terrorism, proliferation, narcotics and piracy".

Predictably, the report says that the US policy "seeks to encourage China to choose a path of peaceful economic growth and political liberalisation, rather than military threat and intimidation," adding that Washington's goal "is for China to continue as an economic partner and emerge as a responsible stakeholder and force for good in the world".

Shorn of these niceties, what the report tells the world is that Washington is extremely concerned about the military policies being pursued by China, the burden of which is that Beijing "continues to invest heavily in its military, particularly in its strategic arsenal and capabilities designed to improve its ability to project power beyond its borders". Set against this background, the veil of diplomatese is torn off rudely when the report says in no uncertain terms that Washington "will also seek to ensure that no foreign power can dictate the terms of regional or global security", and that it "will attempt to dissuade any military competitor from developing disruptive or other capabilities that could enable regional hegemony or hostile action against the United States or other friendly countries".

Washington's sights are therefore squarely set on Beijing. It is in this perspective that the second report — namely, the US "national security review of international energy requirements" drawn up by the Department of Energy and also released this month — should be analysed, the all-important question being whether US strategic energy interests are being hurt in any way by the burgeoning presence of the Chinese in this sector.

Energy interests

Clearly, the overriding issue is to safeguard US energy interests, as was in fact emphasised by Mr Bush himself in his State of the Union speech earlier this month, where a strong plea was made for Americans to shift their focus to renewable forms of energy — from oil. The DoE report in fact makes it abundantly clear that the world is in for a tight oil supply situation in the years ahead. It says: "Tight oil supplies in the face of rapidly growing demand have led to a tripling of world oil prices over the past three years. Not only has this already materially affecting the US trade balance, but it may in the long run curb global economic growth. At the same time, many long-time traditional oil suppliers are facing declining production rates and new replacement supply is lagging".

The principal destabilising factor here has been the emergence of China as a voracious consumer of oil which is the direct result of the impressive annual overall growth rates clocked by the Chinese economy since the early 1990s. The scale of the transformation which has swept over the Chinese energy sector can be adequately gauged by the fact that while in 1985 China was wholly self-sufficient in energy and a net exporter of crude oil, petroleum products and coal, by 2004 roughly 48 per cent of its oil was being imported, leaving the country with an import dependency of around three million barrels per day. According to one estimate, China's oil demand will continue to rise, reaching approximately 14.2 million barrels per day by 2025 of which about 10.7 million will be imported.

Clearly, this energy scenario — which should be of immense interest to New Delhi as well for its own energy requirements — spells trouble for Washington in terms of national security, the need of the hour being to increase domestic production, diversify sources of supply from abroad, and protect and enhance global energy infrastructure. Such measures, though absolutely essential to stave off an impending crisis, cannot be given effect to overnight.

In arguing for the introduction of more efficient equipment which will reduce the growth in demand for oil and gas, the DoE report says that "by helping countries create policies that encourage the deployment of clean energy technologies, as well as by cooperating in the development of such technologies, we can achieve more rapid introduction of these technologies into commercial use". On grounds of US national energy security, is there therefore a faint ray of hope of a change in Washington's stand on the Kyoto Protocol to the treaty on climate change, which the US has not ratified?

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