The Hindu Business Line : Budget session — Government on sticky wicket

A slew of troubling developments — including the Iran issue and, the US nuclear deal — are likely to dominate the Budget session of Parliament, beginning on February 16.

WITH a slew of worrisome developments since the end of the winter session, Parliament faces an uneasy Budget session beginning February 16. Moreover, some old issues are still alive such as the Volcker report that had led to the resignation of Mr Natwar Singh as External Affairs Minister. The Justice Pathak Enquiry Authority on the Volcker findings is likely to give its report during the session that closes at the end of April. An interesting development since the last session is the growing disenchantment of the Left Parties with the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government's economic and external affairs policies. The Left, backing the government from outside, had, on one occasion, threatened to review its support, leaving the Congress rather worried. So far, the Left has refrained from openly embarrassing the Government in Parliament. Its unwillingness to wound (the government), while wanting to strike, stems from its fear that it may well benefit the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), its bete noir, and "other communal forces".

The Left now appears to be revisiting this dichotomy because of the growing criticism of its Janus-faced attitude from a wide section of the middle-class intelligentsia, from where it largely derives its political support. Another compelling reason is that in less than three months, it will be fighting to retain power in West Bengal in the assembly elections where its main rival is the Congress, which is expected to do better in the light of erosion in the popularity of Ms Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress.

New Delhi's decision to vote with the Permanent Members of the UN twice in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to refer Iran's nuclear programme to the UN Security Council, the row over the civilian nuclear pact with Washington, the de-freezing of controversial Italian businessman, Mr Ottavio Quattrocchi's London bank accounts and the decision to leave the modernisation of Delhi and Mumbai airports to private hands, are the main issues the BJP-led NDA Opposition is expected to raise in both Houses during the session. It sees the Left on its side in most of the issues with the possible exceptions of Volcker report and Quattrocchi.

While the Left sees the Volcker report from its global view of a West-dominated UN, it has some apprehensions that the Quattrochi bank account issue may serve to resurrect the `dead' Bofors scam and, thus, help the BJP.

Spokesmen of Left Parties have gone on record that they would take on the Government, both in Parliament and outside, on issues on which they differ with the UPA and wherever the Government has deviated from the Common Minimum Programme. "We may not bring down the government, but we will bring it to its knees" (on specific issues), is the warning of a Left leader. The Left is likely to take up the issue of airports privatisation through a calling attention motion.

However, the government has sought consensus with the Left parties over issues such as foreign direct investment in telecom and print media, power sector reforms, reconstruction of public sector undertakings and the Patent Act.

The BJP-led NDA has given notice to the Lok Sabha Speaker, Mr Somnath Chatterjee, for discussion on 18 issues. These include the Supreme Court's indictment of the Government's decision to dissolve the Bihar assembly and foreign policy. It will also demand an explanation from the Prime Minister over the reported threat to India's nuclear programme, especially after the Atomic Energy Commission Chairman, Mr Anil Kakodkar's publicy-aired views against opening the fast breeder reactors to international inspections.

Another worry of the government is the issue of the Election Commissioner, Mr Navin Chawla's family-run charitable trusts accepting funds from the MP Local Area Development Scheme (MPLADS). The BJP, demanding Mr Chawla's resignation, has said it would take the issue to Parliament. The Government may find itself on a sticky wicket on the issue of the report sought by the Rajinder Sachar committee on the number of Muslims in the armed forces. The BJP is most likely to rake up the issue. The NDA has already sought an appointment with the President to lodge its protest against the move which, it says, would "communalise the Army".

Interestingly, the BJP, though opposing the government on the Iran issue, may soften its stand after a discussion by the executive committee meeting of its parliamentary party. At the obvious behest of the RSS, it is likely to restrict its stand to mere criticism that India was pressured by the US into voting against Iran.

Another significant development is the Samajwadi Party's threat to move a no-confidence motion on the Iran issue. It has enlisted the support of the Telugu Desam Party on the issue and is pressing for a discussion on March 6. However, the Left is insisting only on a full discussion that does not entail voting. It has pointed to the fact that the Prime Minister has agreed to make a statement on the Indo-US nuclear agreement, which will "address all the concerns expressed by political parties and intellectuals".

At a meeting with the Speaker, the UPA has said that the Government is willing to discuss all issues raised in the House. It has also conceded to the Left demand for a debate on the Iran issue, FDI in retail and the Indo-US nuclear deal. The discussion on the controversial Iran nuclear issue is likely to take place in the second week of the Budget session, before the March 6 meeting of the IAEA for the final voting on whether to refer Iran to the Security Council.

As usual, the Speaker, Mr Somnath Chatterjee, has met leaders of various political parties and groups over lunch or dinner to enlist their cooperation in the smooth running of the session.

As the name suggests, the most important business of the session is the passing of the Central Budget for 2006-07. Indications are that it will again be a `soft' Budget with no hike likely in personal income-tax. The trend of reduced excise and Custom duties on popular consumer items and import of technology items, especially in the information area. A broad indication of the Government's mind will be revealed during the President, Dr A. P. J. Abdul Kalam's address to a joint session of both the Houses on February 16. Parliament will then discuss and vote on the speech in a customary motion of thanks. The Budget is to be presented on February 28 after the tabling of the report of the annual Economic Survey and the Railway Budget in the preceding days.

The session begins earlier than the usual third week and is also going to be shorter than normal because of the coming Assembly elections in four States and one union territory — Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam and Pondicherry. Also, the three-week recess has been cut to two weeks. While the first half of the session will continue till March 17, it will resume after the recess on April 3 and end on April 28, instead of the usual mid-May.

The Finance Bill, 2006, giving effect to all the Budget proposals and the relevant appropriation Bills to the Railway Budget proposals are the major pieces of legislation during the session. There are some Bills pending from past sessions having a bearing on economic and social aspects. Politically, the Women's Reservation Bill and the Lok Pal Bill are hanging fire for decades. Going by the current thinking among political parties, it would be safe to bet that these two Bills will not see the light of the day for yet another session.

(The author, a former Deputy Editor with PTI, is a New Delhi-based freelance writer.)