The Hindu Business Line : Bush visit to India<br>An unproductive exercise?

With his words carrying little weight in his own country, being enmeshed in such controversies as illegal wire-tapping, detainees at Guantanamo Bay and Abu Ghraib, his poor handling of domestic issues after the Katrina disaster, and the parlous state of the economy, the US President, Mr George Bush's India visit threatens to be the most untimely and, possibly, the most unproductive exercise, as such odysseys go, says B. S. RAGHAVAN.

The least that a sincere well-wisher of India and the US, and trusted adviser of the US President, Mr George W. Bush, and the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, could have done to serve the best interests of both was to enable them somehow to wriggle out of the projected visit of Mr Bush to India on March 1. It threatens to be the most untimely and, quite possibly, the most unproductive exercise, as such odysseys go.

For one thing, Mr Bush is about to cross the half-way mark in his second and final term, casting a shadow on his pronouncements and promises. As it is, his words carry little weight in his own country because his public standing is abysmally low at the moment, enmeshed as he is in such unsavoury controversies as "illegal" wire-tapping, reports of barbaric torture of detainees at Guantanamo Bay and Abu Ghraib. His handling of domestic issues such as the horrific mismanagement of the aftermath of the Katrina disaster, the parlous state of the economy due to the drain caused by the Iraq war and a historically unprecedented trade deficit are the other negatives. He has been widely characterised as one who lacks the guts to take responsibility for the many mistakes he has committed.

Personal baggage

The Congressional elections, due this summer, may see a conspicuous erosion in the Republican strength, further whittling down his prestige and authority during the remaining years of his tenure. All this would not have mattered much were he an outgoing, cheery, charismatic personality like Ronald Reagan or Mr Bill Clinton.

He comes with a burdensome personal baggage, which is apt to mark his visit from the start as an unenthusing one. All signs, therefore, are of the host and the guest going through with it as an unavoidable ritual, and not as something that puts pep into the strategic partnership.

Coming to substance, taking the centrepiece — the so-called civil nuclear cooperation — of the Bush-Manmohan Singh Joint Statement of July 18, there was a lot of hoopla about its being given a final shape before Mr Bush's arrival and taking off in a big way.

To the contrary, it has — one can say, expectedly, with hindsight — got mired in second and third thoughts on both sides. To be blunt, it is getting more problematic by the day.

India can get out of the mess of its own making only by unconditionally capitulating to the dictates of the US on what should constitute civil and military nuclear facilities, and providing iron-clad commitments to adhere to the embargo on any further nuclear testing, thereby forswearing India's right to a minimum nuclear deterrent based on its judgment of the security environment.

The members of the pull-out-all-stops, pro-US cabal surrounding Dr Manmohan Singh, is egging him on to take the plunge, while, at the same time, bad-mouthing the scientific community which has boldly come out against caving in to US pressure. But braving the strong backlash of public opinion is not going to be that easy. Therefore, papering the cracks and putting the best face on it is all that will be left for both sides to do.

Not the end of world

Although, on the touchstone of national interest, there is no need to consider this a disaster, the visit will certainly be viewed as losing its sheen for having to sidestep something that had been given such a great build-up as the litmus test of US-India strategic partnership.

The opinion in the US itself has never set much store by this "nuclear agreement".

In fact, the American media have better (or worse) things to cover than Mr Bush's impending visit. What with the non-proliferation die-hards in the US Congress trying to blackball the "agreement" and several members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), spearheaded by Sweden and Canada, expressing strong objections to making any special exception for India, the Bush Administration also may be in no hurry to sew it all up at one go during the visit.

Is this end of the world? Not really. A widely-quoted paper titled "Negotiating the US-India Nuclear Cooperation Deal," by Michael Krepon, co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center, emphatically says: "It is false and foolish to assert that (the partnership) would be jeopardised if the nuclear deal were not consummated in the exact form contrived by perhaps a dozen individuals negotiating in extreme secrecy... Indo-US relations are moving ahead smartly in defence cooperation, trade and investment, agriculture, public health and many other areas... there is every reason to believe that our two countries will work side by side in the years to come on promoting democracy and combating terrorism... .". He even dangles the hope that in the future Washington could even support a permanent seat for India on the UN Security Council.

Taking the issues mentioned as a sampler, defence cooperation is already an established fact, further buttressed by the pact signed by the Defence Minister, Mr Pranab Mukherji, and the US Secretary of Defence, Mr Donald Rumsfeld, and there is not very much more that a Presidential presence can do to give it a push.

Bilateral trade and boost to investment are the predestined staples of the agendas of every joint meeting that India has with other countries, and no new issue is looming which needs to be resolved by the US President taking a hand himself.

That leaves us with the fight against terrorism and India's claim for a permanent seat on the Security Council. The visit can be partially redeemed if Mr Bush is coming with some sensational initiatives up his sleeve on both these counts.

For instance, if he were to say in any declaration that comes out of his confabulations with Dr Manmohan Singh that the US would stand guarantee for Pakistan closing down the terrorist camps, stopping the continued impregnating of the young minds in madarsas with jihadi poison and rubbing out the vipers' nests of al Qaeda and Taliban elements from its soil, that would be something worth celebrating.

If he were to go farther and demonstrate the determination of the US to get custody of the arch-nuclear proliferator, A. Q. Khan, and make him cough up information on all his nefarious networks, the visit would acquire an aura of credibility.

And, of course, were he to announce the US' ready support to India's case for a Security Council seat, his coming all the way and creating all the hullabaloo would be well worth the trouble.

Policy of tit-for-tat

If, at least on our side, taking Mr Bush head on, the Prime Minister were to politely but firmly convey India's displeasure for the traducing of India and its acclaimed scientists and prominent public figures by the American Ambassador and the minions of the consular and visa services of the US Embassies, he would have sent back the President impressed with our sense of national self-respect. For, the US does not believe in turning the other cheek and understands only the policy of tit-for-tat.

The treatment meted out to Dr Govardhan Mehta and Dr Placid Rodrigues, well-renowned scientists, making them stand for three-and-a-half hours in a queue and subjecting them to demeaning questions is unbecoming of a civilised country which day in and day out preaches human rights.

Do the same thing to distinguished Americans wanting to come to India and the US might go to any lengths — pre-emptive strike, regime change, reading the riot act — to teach the offender a lesson.

Is there a ghost of a chance of any of the deformities in US policy and insults to India's achievers being raised by the Prime Minister? Perish the thought!

So, what is all the fuss about the visit for?