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Wednesday, Mar 01, 2006


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Markets - Technical Analysis


Volatile movement

K. Premkumar

Trading activity witnessed volatile movement on Tuesday. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bullish. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened with additional counters.

Nifty futures: The March month contract opened with a bull gap of around five points. The March month contract moved with in a range of around 69 points making an intra-day high of 3085.25. It closed with a gain of around 14 points from its previous close.

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The long position in the March contract is exited in the morning session. The long entry and short entry levels are placed quite far away from its last traded price. In the normal course of trading, the entry level is unlikely to be triggered during Wednesday's trading.

Stock futures: The composition and the ranking of the top-10 tradable list had minor changes. REL went out of the list and gave way to MTNL. State Bank and Tata Steel interchanged their positions. ONGC moved up to ninth position from tenth position. Infosys and Satyam interchanged their positions. The top-3 tradable counters in this segment were Tata Steel, REL and Reliance Capital.

All the uptrend counters in the top-10 tradable list are likely to be under threat for Wednesday's trading. On the other hand, two down trend counters are likely to be terminated. There are three opportunities on the buy side, and five on the sell side. The best is likely to be selling in ONGC. This counter is in side ways mode. Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in this counter.

Cash segment: The composition and the ranking of the top-10 tradable list had minor changes. Titan went out of the list and gave way to Satyam. VSNL moved up to sixth position and Tata Steel moved down to tenth position. The long exit level for Titan is placed at 767.45.

All the uptrend counters in the top-10 tradable list are likely to be under threat for Wednesday's trading. On the other hand, both the downtrend counters are likely to be safe. There are two opportunities on the buy side, and five on the sell side. The best is likely to be buying in Reliance Capital. This counter is in side ways mode. Bull pressure on Wednesday is likely to initiate a fresh uptrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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