The Hindu Business Line : A POWER DEAL

A historic fusion has happened between the world's oldest and the largest democracies, and the energies released are sure to benefit both, perhaps the latter more. The US President, Mr George W. Bush, and the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, had in July 18, 2005 committed themselves to taking India-US relations on a new atomic energy path and have since negotiated patiently and surely past fissile elements, in both countries to arrive at the civil nuclear deal, on Thursday in New Delhi. Keeping in mind India's responsible nuclear conduct, and its energy needs, the US appears to have reconciled itself to the current realities, including India's right to make bombs, or at least have the capability. Of course, there is still a lot of ground to be covered, as the US Congress and the Nuclear Suppliers Group need to approve changes to the non-proliferation rules, especially for supply of fuel to India. The NSG should largely fall in line with the US, though there could be uncertain elements such as China. Also to be addressed are the India-specific safeguards, to be negotiated with the International Atomic Energy <243>Agency.

For India, the coup is the acceptance by the US of its separation plan, as laid out by the Department of Atomic Energy and the Prime Minister in Parliament on February 27. This will keep India's fast breeder programme out of the purview of safeguards and international scrutiny as also around a third of the nuclear power generating capacity. This should give the country enough fissile material to mount any strategic minimum deterrence programme. It also puts an end to the fear that the US intended capping India's strategic nuclear capability. Though Washington has had its way on enforcing the in-perpetuity safeguards, New Delhi has got an exit clause inserted in case of interruptions in fuel supplies. For the US, the deal is also a diplomatic coup in Asia, seen as the strategic geography of this century. With India on its side, Washington will be able to ensure that its influence in this region remains undiminished in the face of the growing clout of China and Russia. Japan is only now coming out of its decade-long economic hibernation; anyway Tokyo is presumed to be on the Washington team.

A resurgent nuclear demand in India would rejuvenate the American reactor building industry (and benefit those of Russia and France, which are willing to offer them to India provided the deal with the US was struck). Even more importantly, opening up the nuclear route will keep India's hydro-carbon demand in check. This is a gain for India too; it needs to ensure its energy security by reducing its dependence on fossil fuels. From an era of technology denial, India has joined the mainstream of atomic energy development, with the US, as it were, providing the trigger. This new fusion of India and the US should send out powerful signals to the world, in particular the neighbourhood.

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