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Friday, Mar 24, 2006


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Markets - Technical Analysis


Volatile swings continue

K. Premkumar

Thursday's trading activity continued to be volatile. However, the sentiment reading of the tradable counters changed to neutral. Bull domination on Friday is likely to change the sentiment reading in to bullish. On the other hand, the sentiment reading is likely to turn to bearish.

Nifty futures: The March month contract opened with a bull gap of around 10 points. It moved with in a range of around 52 points making an intraday low of 3,209. March contract closed with a gain of around 7 points from its previous close.

The short position in the March month contract is exited and reversed in the day's trading. The long exit and short entry levels are placed quite far away from its last traded price. In the normal course of trading these levels are unlikely to be triggered during Friday.

Stock futures: The composition and the ranking of the top-10 tradable list had no changes. The top-3 tradable counters in this segment were State Bank, Tata Steel and MTNL.

Click here for table

All the uptrend counters in the top-10 tradable list are likely to be under threat for Friday's trading. On the other hand, four down trend counters are likely to be terminated. There are four opportunities on either side of the trading.

The best is likely to be selling in Satyam. Bear move on Friday is likely to trigger the down trend in this counter.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list had no changes. However, the ranking of the list had minor changes. Hind Lever got in to the list while Titan went out of the list. The ranking had total revamp.

All the uptrend counters in the top-10 tradable list are likely to be under threat for Friday's trading. On the other hand, three down trend counters are likely to be terminated. There are three opportunities on the buy side and four opportunities on the sell side.

The best is likely to be selling in Hind Lever. Bear pressure on Friday is likely to reverse the existing trend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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