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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , March 24

Skies over the Bay of Bengal have been witnessing convective clouding over the past few days, which could combine with the easterly waves to trigger a wet session in the southern peninsula over the next few days.

Speaking to Business Line, Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said the clouding is associated with the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone that extends further to the east over Indonesia and even Australia.

Moisture feed

The winter monsoon is active in Australia and it is possible that moisture feed that sustains the season may have found its way to the seas to the west, he added. The prevailing easterly waves are fleet-footed, and do not normally stay over a place for more than 48 hours.

It's only natural then to infer that the clouds would ride the crest of these waves to reach the southern peninsula over the next two-three days. This will further accentuate the pre-monsoon thunderstorm activity in the region.

The easterlies apart, there is no established atmospheric disturbance (in the form of a trough of `low') over the Bay that could trigger a sustained wet session anywhere over the territorial land. Just as well, since an organised system of that nature is best identified with the monsoon proper.

FORECAST

The prevailing western disturbance is likely to cause scattered rain/snow over Western Himalayas and isolated rain/thundershowers over the adjoining plains of the Northwest during the next 48 hours.

An NCMRWF forecast said that except the Northeastern States and the extreme south peninsular India, where isolated to scattered rains or thundershowers are expected during the next two-three days, generally dry weather conditions are likely to prevail over the remaining parts of the country.

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