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Thursday, Apr 06, 2006


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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bull domination

K. Premkumar

Bulls dominated over Wednesday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bullish. Bear domination on Thursday is likely to neutralise the sentiment reading. On the contrary, the prevailing bullish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened with additional counters.

Nifty futures: The April month contract opened with a bull gap of around 5 points. It moved within a range of around 38 points making an all time high of 3515. April contract closed with a gain of around 25 points from its previous close.

The long position in the April month contract is intact. The long exit and the short entry levels are placed quite far away from its last traded price. In the normal course of trading these levels are unlikely to be triggered during Thursday.

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Stock futures: The composition and the ranking of the top-10 tradable list had changes. Reliance, Tata Motors, Tata Steel and State Bank went out of the list and gave way to BHEL, i-flex, Hind Lever and IPCL.

Ranking of the list had a total revamp. The top-3 tradable counters in this segment were Ranbaxy, Cipla and Suzlon. All the counters in the top-10 tradable list are likely to be terminated during Thursday's trading. There is a lone opportunity on the buy side and three opportunities on the sell side. The best is likely to be selling in i-flex. This counter is in uptrend. Bear pressure on Thursday is likely to trigger the downtrend in this counter.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list had no changes. However, the ranking of the list had minor changes. VSNL moved up to fourth position and Reliance moved down to fifth position. Tata Steel and State Bank interchanged their positions. All the counters in the top-10 tradable list are likely to be under threat for Thursday's trading. There are two opportunities on the buy side and five opportunities on the sell side. The best is likely to be buying in Tata Steel. Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to reverse the existing trend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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