The Hindu Business Line : Cereal imports may top 100 million tonnes in 2025

According to US estimates, India will "need to import 92 million tonnes (mt) of cereals each year to meet domestic demand after 2025." Is this likely? There is no way of saying.

But a quick calculation shows that it is definitely possible. According to NSS estimates, total consumption of cereals in India in 1999-2000 was 136 mt, of which 107 mt were accounted for by the rural population.

One reason for this relatively low figure was the large number of children below 15, which was higher in low income rural households (see table I).

This is expected to come down significantly by 2025, and will increase per capita consumption of cereals by low income households. The rural poor are even otherwise important because (a) households, whose total monthly expenditure is less than Rs 380, account for about 40 per cent of cereal consumption in rural India; and (b) unlike the more fortunate, they tend to increase rather than decrease cereal consumption per capita as their income levels increase.

Significant rise

How much will cereal consumption increase solely because of a drop in the proportion of children below 15? It turns out that if half the number of children in households belonging to various income groups cross the age of 15, annual cereal consumption would straightaway rise from 107 mt to 139 mt in rural areas (see table II), and from 136 mt to 175 mt for India as a whole.

In other words, a 40 mt jump can be expected on this count alone.

If this one adds the slow rate of growth in cereal production, the rise in India's population over the next 20 years, and the rising incomes of the poor, an annual 100 mt deficit from 2025 onwards is well within the realm of possibility.

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Cereal imports may top 100 million tonnes in 2025