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Friday, Apr 14, 2006


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Markets - Technical Analysis


Volatile movement

K. Premkumar

Thursday's trading activity witnessed volatile movement. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bearish. Bull domination on Monday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened with additional counters.

Nifty futures: The April month contract opened with a bear gap of around 12 points. April contract moved with in a range of around 100 points making an intraday low of 3293.10. It closed with a loss of around 35 points from its previous close.

The long position in the April month contract exited and entered a fresh short position in the morning session. The short exit and the long entry levels are placed quite far away from its last traded price. In the normal course of trading, these levels are unlikely to be triggered during Monday.

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Stock futures: The composition and the ranking of the top-10 tradable list had minor changes. i-flex, Hind Lever and Rel went out of the list and gave way to MTNL, Jet Airways and Hindalco. Ranbaxy, Infosys and IPCL moved down to fourth, seventh and last positions respectively. The short exit level for Tata Motors and State bank are placed at 924.05 and 963.55 respectively.

There are no uptrend counters in the top-10 tradable list. On the other hand, four down trend counters are likely to be under threat for Monday's trading. There are four opportunities on the buy side. The best is likely to be buying in Ranbaxy. Bull pressure on Monday is likely to trigger the uptrend in this counter.

Cash segment: The composition and the ranking of the top-10 tradable list had minor changes. I-flex got in to the list and State bank moved out of the list. Reliance moved down to seventh position and Tata Steel moved up to eighth position.

A lone uptrend counter Reliance is likely to be under threat for Monday's trading. On the other hand, four down trend counters are likely to be terminated. There are four opportunities on the buy side and a lone opportunity on the sell side. The best is likely to be buying in Tata Motors. Bull pressure on Monday is likely to reverse the existing trend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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