Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications
Wednesday, Apr 26, 2006
Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Wednesday, Apr 26, 2006 |
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Industry & Economy - Climate & Weather `Low' intensifies into depression; could even become cyclone Vinson Kurian
The UK Met Office has categorised the system as `strong' and has forecast that it will undergo another round intensification around Thursday/Friday.
Thiruvananthapuram , April 25 Monday's `low' over Southeast Bay of Bengal is behaving true to predictions and has intensified into a depression with an assigned number 02B, centred around the same latitude as Madurai on Tuesday afternoon. A sufficiently warmed up Bay and the low `shear effect' will aid its further intensification into a deep depression and even to a cyclone within the next 48 hours, a forecast by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting said. Model predictions continue to suggest a north-northwest course for the system initially, but it could swerve later to the northeast under the `shear effect' of incoming westerlies. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very rainfall with gusts has been forecast for Andaman and Nicobar islands during the next two days.
Severe cyclone likely
The UK Met Office has categorised the system as `strong' and has forecast that it will undergo another round intensification around Thursday/Friday. The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre concurs with this outlook and says 02B will carry a core of winds with maximum sustained speeds of 55 knots (101 kmph) gusting to 70 knots (130 kmph). This will elevate its status to a `severe cyclonic storm' (just below Category 1 storm). In the process, 02B will have moved north-northwest to 13.3N and 87.8E (along the Chennai latitude, to the southwest of Port Blair). Over land, predictions continue to suggest gradual rise in day temperatures over North, Central and North Peninsular India over the next four to five days. This could trigger heat wave conditions in parts of Rajasthan within the next two days and subsequently over some parts of Central India. Isolated to scattered rains are expected over Assam and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal over the next few days. Coastal Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal may experience fairly widespread rains on Thursday and Friday.
IMD forecast
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast for 2006 monsoon being 93 per cent of the long-period average is as good as a normal monsoon, according to weather experts. There is at least one reason why the IMD would have preferred to err on the side of caution. Out of the eight-parameter model it uses for the forecast, predictions for a favourable and an unfavourable monsoon were evenly matched. The projected rainfall could be deemed normal according to the old classification, which treated a 10 per cent deviation as within the range of normalcy. By the IMD's own admission, the `just below normal' coinage was used this time to suit categorisation purposes. A clearer picture on monsoon performance would emerge only by June, when the predictability of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions could be made with far better confidence. March-June is the period least suited for making accurate ENSO predictions, which is thought to have some bearing on Indian monsoon performance.
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