The Hindu Business Line : It's Cyclone Mala, likely to head for Myanmar coast

Tuesday's depression over the South-East Bay metamorphosed into Tropical Cyclone Mala overnight and lay centred at 10.8N and 90.8E (around the Karaikkudi latitude) on Wednesday afternoon.

Cyclone Mala had an estimated central pressure of 991 millibars and sustained wind speeds reaching 75 kmph to 80 kmph, said Dr K.J. Ramesh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). Drop in barometric pressure to a value of 980 millibars will elevate it to Category 1 status.

Gradual intensification

Conditions are just favourable for its gradual intensification of the system in the coming days as it tracks a north-northeast direction. The fact that it is headed into still warmer waters to the northeast will help strengthen the system further but slow it down as well.

The Bay of Bengal should normally host one more weather system in the pre-monsoon period. According to Dr Ramesh, it will be a while before the seawaters recoup the energy needed to initiate the next `low' (a prospective cyclonic storm evolving out of this would bear the name `Mukda').

Assuming Cyclone Mala sticks to the path predicted it should slam down on the Myanmar coast, where the undulating terrain will absorb its energy and mellow it down. But this will not happen until May 1, says a forecast by the UK Met Office.

According to 48-hour forecast put out by Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) and the US-based Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) specialising in processing and analysing satellite microwave data, Cyclone Mala will intensify in a linear fashion. The only land feature that could act as a pressure release valve on its path is the Andaman Islands.

Data put out by the RSS say sea surface temperatures ranging from 30.63C to 31.35C will make for sufficient warm anomalies for the storm to prosper. The US Navy's Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation chart corroborates these prognostications.

The UK Met Office says Cyclone Mala will undergo at least four rounds of intensification before weakening to below tropical storm strength on May 1 at 18.1N and 91.4E (over the Arakan coast in Myanmar).

The system will bring fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very rainfall with gusty winds over Andaman and Nicobar islands during the two days. Associated peripheral cloud bands could bring isolated to scattered rainfall activity over north Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Orissa. A western disturbance approaching the northern parts of Jammu and Kashmir by Sunday could cool down things a bit in the north, where mercury has been rising in the past few days.