The Hindu Business Line : Cyclone Mala is strongest after Orissa Cyclone

Tropical Cyclone Mala has become the severest storm in the Bay of Bengal basin after the Orissa Super Cyclone of 1999, but it is churning away too far across to the northeast to be of any consequence to the Indian coast.

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said in its update on Thursday that Cyclone Mala has intensified into a severe cyclonic storm (Category 1 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale for classifying hurricanes) with an estimated central barometric pressure of 972 millibars.

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very rainfall and gusty winds has been forecast for the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next two days.

Still three days away from making a landfall on the Arakan coast of Myanmar, the severe cyclone is threatening to grow into a destructive Category 4 storm by Saturday.

The London-based Tropical Storm Risk Group said the system would kick up wind speeds clocking 115 knots (213 kmph) by Saturday.

In comparison, the Orissa Super Cyclone (unnamed, but numbered 05B) had slammed down on the Gopalpur region of Orissa with wind speeds reaching in excess of 160 knots (300 km).

The massive storm killed an estimated 10,000 people over a period of three days.

Not enough heating

Meanwhile, over land, day temperatures have seen appreciable rise over North, Central and Peninsular India. A heat wave alert has been sounded in some parts in Rajasthan and Central India.

Viewed from the monsoon angle, the heating process leaves much to be desired, says Dr K. J. Ramesh of the NCMRWF. A string of thundershowers being reported even now from several parts of the peninsula is proving quite a dampener in this context.

The extreme northern parts of the country have been witnessing untimely snowfall as late as February, which has not helped matters either. As if this was not enough, there is a fresh alert for a wave of western disturbance approaching the northern parts of Jammu and Kashmir by Sunday with its waft of cooler air.

The country can do with some extra heating during the run-up to the scheduled arrival of southwest monsoon. A brighter and hotter sun during the first 15 days of May should be enough to ensure differential heating of the landmass in relation to the surrounding ocean.

This land-ocean heating contrast reaching the threshold levels will, in turn, pave the way for moisture-laden monsoon currents to bear down on the southwest coast.