The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon planning

The slightly below-normal rainfall forecast for this year's southwest monsoon issued last week by the India Meteorological Department has needlessly caused a scare in some quarters. Headlines screaming that the country was heading for drought this year were perhaps highly sensationalised reporting of a forecast that had probabilities and caveats attached to it; a sad commentary on the analytical and interpretative skills of some observers. Far from being provocative, the IMD had forecast that rainfall for the country as a whole was likely to be 93 per cent of the long period average (of 880 mm); and that the probability of rainfall being deficient (below 90 per cent of the LPA) was only 22 per cent. Indeed, if the forecast (93 per cent of LPA) turns out to be correct, the country would enjoy a satisfactory monsoon provided the rains are temporally and spatially well distributed. What is, therefore, important is not the quantum of rainfall as a whole, but its distribution over the four-month period across the length and breadth of the country.

Unfortunately, the IMD is yet to come up with a month-specific, region-specific forecast, something that would help farmers plan their crops more meticulously. Given the country's huge stake in agriculture, no cost would be too high to acquire the requisite expertise or technology. But, surely, there is nothing in the forecast to suggest an abnormally errant monsoon or emergence of drought-like conditions.

The forecast and reactions to it should not, of course, divert anyone's attention from ground rules for the planting season. While the various stakeholders must ensure adequate supplies of inputs such as seeds, fertilisers, agro-chemicals and, most important, bank credit, farmers and policymakers must gear themselves up to cope with divergent rainfall conditions. Fortunately, the reservoir status is comforting. The current water storage is more than last year's position and more than the average of the last 10 years. However, a fallback strategy is needed in the event of rains being considerably below normal. Contingency plans have, therefore, to be put in place well in time to fight early-season or mid-season moisture-stress.

As the outbreak of the monsoon is just about four weeks away, it is time the minimum support price for various kharif crops was announced. State governments will have to work with the Centre to ensure maximum farm output growth during kharif 2006. It is necessary to target 5-6 per cent growth in agriculture for 2006-07, without which double-digit GDP growth is near impossible. The less-than-modest agricultural growth of the last four years of the Tenth Plan (averaging 1.5 per cent a year) is surely a drag on economic performance.

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