The Hindu Business Line : A victory for alliance

It is thanks to the alliance it formed and retained that the DMK is once again back in power in Tamil Nadu. And perhaps for the first time in its history, the State may see a coalition government, though it is not very clear if the Congress(I) will join the government. RASHEEDA BHAGAT analyses the election results in four States.

ALLIANCE IN flying colours. — T_Singaravelou

It will be an emotional meeting between Mr M. Karunanidhi, Chief Minister-elect of Tamil Nadu, and the Governor, Mr S. S. Barnala, when the former calls on the latter as the victor of State Assembly elections. Way back in 1990, Mr Barnala had refused to send in a report to the Centre against the then DMK government that would have resulted in its dismissal under Article 356, and had opted to lose his office as Governor. Eventually, the DMK government was indeed dismissed but the incident laid the ground for a deep and lasting friendship between the two. So, after delivering 39 MPs from Tamil Nadu to the UPA Government in 2004, the DMK chief ensured that Mr Barnala returned to Chennai as Governor, though he himself had to wait for two years before greeting him as chief minister.

The results of the elections in the four States of Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala and Assam have given a thumbs-up to the Left parties and to Mr Karunanidhi for mastering the art of electoral alliance. Except for the exit of Mr Vaiko and his MDMK, Mr Karunanidhi managed to keep together the Democratic Progressive Alliance that he had brought together for the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, to deliver such spectacular results.

IN OR OUT?

It is thanks to the alliance it formed and retained that the DMK is once again back in power in Tamil Nadu, after losing to the AIADMK in the 2001 elections. Yet, for the first time in its history, Tamil Nadu may see a coalition government, though it is not very clear if the Congress(I) will join the government. Unlikely though it seems at the moment, there is an outside chance that the Congress will take a leaf out of the Left parties' book and decide to extend support from outside.

But even in defeat the AIADMK has not been routed as it was in the 1996 elections, as was the DMK in 1991; in the outgoing Assembly the DMK had only 31 seats, while in the new House the main Opposition party — the AIADMK — will have 61 seats.

Even while giving a decisive verdict, as has been their wont in every Assembly election, the Tamil Nadu electorate did not hand every thing to the DPA and rout the AIADMK Front. In 2001, Mr Vaiko, who had walked out in a huff at the last minute from the DMK-led alliance and contested on his own, failed to get a single seat then. But this time his MDMK has managed to win six seats. And as for actor Vijayakanth, who had created quite a stir and drawn considerable attention, only he managed to win (from Vriddhachalam in Cuddalore district) for his DMDK.

NO FACE-TO-FACE

To ensure good governance, a reasonably-strong Opposition is crucial so as to keep a check on the ruling party.

But, unfortunately, Dravidian politics, particularly after MGR's demise in 1985, has been characterised by such vehement differences and dislikes among the principal protagonists that over the last 15 years Mr Karunanidhi and Ms Jayalalithaa have studiously avoided coming face-to-face, even in the Assembly. When he is in power, she will not attend the Assembly, and vice-versa.

In fact, Mr Karunanidhi had once mentioned to this correspondent in an interview (after coming to power in 1996) that despite being political rivals he and MGR did share a certain bonhomie; "he gave me great respect and would always call me Kalaignar, but this lady (Jayalalithaa) is totally different," he had said.

An even greater shortcoming in the two bitter political foes is the politics of vendetta. In 1996, the DMK regime headed by Mr Karunanidhi not only put Ms Jayalalithaa behind bars, but also raided her Chennai residence and telecast every nook and corner of her house as also her collection of saris and footwear. In 2001, she returned the compliment through the midnight arrest of the 77-year-old leader, who was smart enough to delay the arrest till the Sun TV camera crew arrived to capture his being dragged out of his house. In the melee that followed, his nephew, Murasoli Maran, too was roughed up.

This apart, the one big question after the Karunanidhi regime is sworn in pertains to how vindictive his party will be towards Ms Jayalalithaa. But, then, tit-for-tat is not always the best political strategy, and political icons who are harassed and humiliated tend to spring back, as Ms Jayalalithaa did in 2001 and Mr Karunanidhi now has.

Vote for reform in Bengal

But more than Tamil Nadu, the real story of this batch of elections is the one in West Bengal, with Mr Buddhadeb Battacharjee emerging as a larger-than-life hero.

The Left's sweep is an overwhelming endorsement by the people of West Bengal of his openly defying his party's anti-reform rhetoric and pressing ahead with the economic development of West Bengal. The manner in which he has wooed IT majors to his State, chided trade unions on their anti-development stirs, and actively attracted investment to the State has been a clear winner.

It was sad to see on TV cameras on Thursday one Left leader after another refusing to give him the credit but mouthing platitudes on how the party is bigger than individuals.

As for the Congress, it has not done too badly either. It will manage to cobble together a government in Assam; has not done as badly in Kerala as expected; put up a decent performance in Tamil Nadu, and might be on the verge of sharing power in the State... after four long decades.

This election has also been a victory for the psephologists and pollsters, who had got things all mixed up during the 2004 Lok Sabha election, and failed to even smell the possibility of the BJP losing and the Congress leading a coalition in Delhi. But perhaps, along with the entire media, they too had got so dazzled by the BJP's `India Shining' blitzkrieg, and so blinded by the high voltage campaign that they failed to see the writing on the wall, of the not-so-shining India rejecting all claims of a make-believe razzle-dazzle.

But the one victory that lacks significance is the Congress(I) chief, Ms Sonia Gandhi's triumph in Rae Bareilly. The media circus might give Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi a thousand compliments for managing their mother's poll campaign and securing an unprecedented lead over her rivals. The fact remains it was a totally unwarranted election and a needless drain on the exchequer.

If some bright spark in the Congress had not come out with the idea of disqualifying Jaya Bachchan with the sole aim of scoring a brownie point with the party chief, Parliament would not have seen such stormy times or the impasse; the by-election would not have been necessary.

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in