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Friday, May 12, 2006


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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bear domination

K. Premkumar

Bears dominated the Thursday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters changed to bearish. Bull pressure on Friday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to be further strengthened with additional counters.

Nifty futures

The May month contract opened with a bull gap of around 14 points and went up by another two points. However, bulls could not capitalise on their initial momentum and gave way to bears. May contract moved with in a range of around 81 points, making an intra-day low of 3681. It closed with a loss of around 58 points from its previous close.

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The May contract exited and entered a fresh short position in the morning session. The short exit and long entry levels are placed quite far away from its last traded price. In the normal course of trading, these levels are unlikely to be triggered during Friday's trading.

Stock futures

The composition and the ranking of the top-10 tradable list had no changes. The top-3 tradable counters in this segment were Reliance, Tata Steel and VSNL.

All the uptrend counters in the top-10 tradable list are likely to be under threat for Friday's trading. On the other hand, four downtrend counters are likely to be terminated. There are five opportunities on the buy side and three opportunities on the sell side. The best is likely to be selling in TCS. This counter is in side ways mode. Bear move on Friday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in this counter.

Cash segment

The Composition and the ranking of the top-10 tradable list had no changes. All the uptrend counters in the top-10 tradable list are likely to be under threat for Friday's trading. On the other hand, five downtrend counters are likely to be terminated. There are five opportunities on the buy side and three opportunities on the sell side. The best is likely to be buying in Infosys. Bull pressure on Friday is likely to trigger the uptrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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