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Wednesday, May 17, 2006


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Markets - Technical Analysis


Volatile movement

K. Premkumar

Tuesday's market action witnessed a tug of war between bulls & bears. After volatile movement through out the day, bulls managed to gain control towards the end. However, the sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bearish. Further bull pressure on Wednesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in its favour. On the other hand, the prevailing sentiment is likely to be strengthened.

Nifty Futures

The May contract opened with a gap of around 3 points and came down by around 110 points. However, bears could not sustain their pressure and gave way to bulls during the later part of the day. May contract moved in a range of around 189 points. It closed with a gain of around 69 points from its previous close.

The short position in the May contract is locked up with a good profit of around 136 points. Both the short exit and long entry levels are now placed just 30 points away from the last traded price. In the normal course of trading during Wednesday, these levels are likely to be triggered.

Stock futures

The composition and the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remained unchanged. The top-3 tradable counters in this segment were Reliance, Tata steel, Reliance, and Hindalco.

Click here for table

Except for the downtrend in MTNL, all the other downtrend counters in list are likely to be under threat for Wednesday's trading. There are no selling opportunities for Wednesday's trading. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in 9 out of the 10 counters in the list. The best among them is likely to be buying in Reliance Industries. This counter is in downtrend. Bull pressure on Wednesday is likely to reverse the prevailing trend in this counter.

Cash segment

The Composition of the list had a minor change. ACC gained entry with the exit of Ranbaxy. The ranking of the list too had a change. ACC occupied seventh position pushing VSNL & Hindlever to eighth and ninth positions.

Except for the downtrend in Maruti & Tata steel, all the other downtrend counters in the list are likely to be terminated during Wednesday's trading. On the other hand, both the uptrend counters are likely to be under threat. There are ample buying opportunities for Wednesday's trading. The best is likely to be buying in Reliance Industries. Bull move on Wednesday is likely to trigger the uptrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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