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Population growth rates dip below 1 pc in TN, Kerala

Dharini Nagarajan

SOCIAL INITIATIVES


Growth rates
Declining growth figures thanks to successful family planning initiatives
Similar declining trend in growth rates in AP and Karnataka
BIMARU states continue to drive the country's population growth

New Delhi , May 17

The Indian demographic scenario has thrown up a few interesting trends, with population growth rates in the two southern States of Tamil Nadu and Kerala slipping below the 1 per cent mark. However, the BIMARU states (Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh) continue to drive population growth in the country.

According to the latest Census Sample Bulletin Data that shows population growth for the year 2004, Tamil Nadu and Kerala have seen growth dip to 0.96 and 0.91 per cent respectively.

A similar declining trend in growth rates is observed in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. In 1998, AP recorded a 1.36 per cent natural growth rate, while in 2004, population growth declined to 1.2 per cent. Mr Ashish Bose, Honorary Professor at the Institute of Economic Growth, said, "Both Tamil Nadu and Kerala have had good social policies and have successfully communicated to their members the need for family planning. The growth figures are a result of these initiatives."

He added, "Growth rate in Tamil Nadu and Kerala are compensating for the higher growth rates in the BIMARU States."

Chances of discrepancies

However, analysts point out that there may also be statistical discrepancies in the available data. The sample is replaced every 10 years based on the latest Census frame. It had been a practice to stagger the replacement process over two-three years. However, the latest replacement has been carried out in one go. Effective from January 2004, this sample is based on the 2001 Census frame.

At present, the Census Sample Bulletin Data spreads over 7,597 sample units (4,433 rural and 3,164 urban), across all States and Union Territories, and covers about 1.3 million households and a population of 6.73 million.

Some fluctuations in the vital rates for 2004 over the previous year for certain States and Union Territories may be largely due to complete replacement of the sample in one go. Hence, "teething" problems with the sample data could be one of the factors affecting the statistics.

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