The Hindu Business Line : Afghanistan: The looming dangers

Because of American short-sightedness, the forces of the erstwhile Northern Alliance in Afghanistan have been disarmed. India has, therefore, to be prepared for a worsening security situation, where its nationals will be threatened when working in Provinces bordering Pakistan.

Lauding its "determination and courage" in fighting terrorism and stopping nuclear proliferation, the former US Secretary of State, Mr Colin Powell, joyously declared, on March 16, 2004, that Pakistan was a "major non-NATO ally". Just two years later, the US State Department's Coordinator for counter-terrorism, Mr Henry Crumpton, asserted in Kabul that most of the Al Qaeda and Taliban leaders are in Pakistan and while the US did not know where Osama bin Laden was hiding, he was probably on the Pakistan side of the border.

Mr Crumpton said that Pakistan is "not doing enough" to root out Al Qaeda and Taliban leaders who have found a safe haven on its soil. He added that an alliance of Al Qaeda and Taliban leaders was stepping up violence in the Southern and Eastern Provinces of Afghanistan bordering Pakistan. The Pakistani President, Gen Pervez Musharraf's spokesman predictably described Mr Crumpton's allegations as "absurd".

Concern about Pakistan's support to Taliban leaders, who are known to be comfortably ensconced in Baluchistan and the North-West Frontier Province, has been repeatedly voiced by the Afghan President, Mr Hamid Karzai, and other Afghan leaders. On May 6, Taliban leader Mullah Barakzai was killed in Quetta.

There have also been other instances of Taliban leaders being gunned down by unknown assailants in Pakistan. The US President, Mr George Bush, did not mince words on this issue when he was in Islamabad recently. American concerns on the increased activities of the Taliban in 2005 were triggered by the fact that the US lost around 100 soldiers in combat operations in Afghanistan last year. Those targeted by the Taliban also include Afghan leaders like Sibgatullah Mujadidi, who are trying to persuade sections of the Taliban to join the national mainstream.

Taliban suicide attacks

The Taliban have not only attacked American, NATO and Afghan Government forces, but recently resorted to frequent suicide bombings. On January 17, 2006 Taliban Commander Mullah Dadullah proclaimed: "Hundreds of Afghan Taliban Mujahideen are ready for suicide attacks. They await orders from the Taliban leadership." Barely two days earlier, a Canadian diplomat was killed and 15 soldiers wounded in a suicide bomb attack. On January 5, 2006 a suicide bomb attack was launched near a meeting being addressed by the American Ambassador in Afghanistan. A month later, it was revealed that the suicide attacks had been orchestrated by Taliban leaders based in Pakistan.

Two Afghans and three Pakistanis who were interrogated revealed how young suicide bombers were recruited and trained in Karachi and then infiltrated into Afghanistan from safe houses in Chaman and Quetta. In a memorial service for the victims of a suicide bombing in Kandahar the Kandahar Governor revealed that "most of the suicide bombers are not Afghans" and added that many captured were Urdu-speaking.

The beheading of Indian engineer K. Suryanarayana on April 29 and the earlier killing of Indian road construction worker M. R. Kutty is the inevitable outcome of a situation wherein Pakistan is now in a position to blatantly support the Taliban in an effort to destabilise the US-backed Hamid Karzai Government in Afghanistan.

This policy has evolved in a carefully calculated and calibrated manner. Recognising that the Americans were primarily interested in going after Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda supporters, Pakistan kept the Americans happy by periodically arresting second-rung Al Qaeda leaders like Khalid Sheikh Mohammed.

Quid pro quo

The Americans, in turn, obliged Gen Musharraf with huge economic and military assistance and rehabilitated the military regime in the international community. Gen Musharraf knows that the moment Osama is killed, he loses his strategic value to the Americans. The 6-foot-5-inch tall Osama, who requires regular dialysis, therefore, conveniently becomes invisible!

When the American desire to wind down their presence in Afghanistan became evident in early 2005, the Taliban was revived and became hyperactive all along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. The Americans are evidently determined to reduce significantly their military presence in Afghanistan in a phased manner. At the same time, the NATO-led ISAF forces in Afghanistan are expected to provide around 32,000 troops. The Pakistanis know that, unlike the Americans, European countries like Netherlands have no stomach for active combat that would involve casualties and body-bags.

This was evident from the not too courageous performance of the Dutch in Srebrenica when Dutch forces watched as spectators as hundreds of Bosnian Muslims were massacred. Further, the 30,000-strong Afghan army has been raised and trained in a manner that does not inspire much confidence in its ability to fight the Taliban that, like in the past, will be backed by Pakistani regular forces.

Threat for India

Thanks to American short-sightedness, the forces of the erstwhile Northern Alliance that alone had the discipline and motivation to take on the Taliban have been disarmed. India has, therefore, to be prepared for a worsening security situation in Afghanistan, where its nationals will be threatened when working in Provinces bordering Pakistan.

There will necessarily have to be close coordination between our Diplomatic Missions and the NATO led ISAF on issues involving the security of our nationals. But under no circumstances should we agree to the deployment of Indian security forces in Afghanistan. This has to be an American, NATO and UN responsibility.

Existing forces in Afghanistan could be supplemented by a UN force drawn predominantly from Islamic countries like Turkey, Egypt, Bangladesh and Malaysia. ITBP personnel in Afghanistan should have a strictly limited role of defending our Missions and those working in specified Indian-aided projects. At the same time, we should make it clear that we are determined to continue our economic assistance to the friendly people of Afghanistan.

Osama bin Laden recently spoke of a "Crusader-Zionist-Hindu conspiracy against Muslims". The Amir of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (now calling itself the Jamat-ud-Dawa), Hafiz Mohammed Syed, proclaimed in Lahore on April 24 that, "Hindu hands are soaked with the blood of lakhs of Muslims. There should be no friendship with Hindus and Jihad should be waged against them. Hindus have no right over India and the entire land belongs to Allah. It was the duty of all Muslims to liberate this land from the infidels and to make efforts to propagate Islam. There is need for efforts like those made by Mohammed bin Qasim, Mohammed Ghauri and Mahmud Ghazni to liberate the Muslims of Kashmir and India".

Given the close links between the Taliban and the Jamat-ud-Dawa, the Bush Administration has declared the Jamat-ud-Dawa an international terrorist organisation.

Pakistan has indicated that it will ban the Jamat only if demanded by the UN Security Council. Has New Delhi urged the UN Security Council to act under UN Security Council Resolution 1373 against the Jamat-ud-Dawa as a terrorist organisation that publicly proclaims its determination to wage Jihad against India?

(The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan.)

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