The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon onset window extended to next six days

Widespread rains continued in Kerala for the third successive day on Wednesday but failed to measure up to specified levels to drive the monsoon current eastward into the south-west coast.

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) quoted model predictions to suggest that the monsoon flow over Arabian Sea is building up progressively. Under its influence, the rainfall activity is expected to enhance over Lakshadweep and the Kerala coast "during the next 5-6 days."

This would mean that the forecast window for onset has been extended to as many days to coincide more or less with the official forecast date for onset of May 30.

Unofficial estimates had earlier suggested that the rain activity along the coast could perk up from Thursday/Friday, precipitating a possible onset.

The winds have picked up in speed overnight but have been blowing in a direction prejudicial to what are considered ideal monsoon settings, said Mr K. Santhosh, Director, Met Office, Thiruvananthapuram.

Winds have to be westerly or south-westerly to be monsoon-friendly but Wednesday saw they blow in from a predominantly north-westerly direction.They are expected to settle into the desired pattern sooner than later.

Secondly, the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a belt of low air pressure girdling the planet and which helps sustain the monsoon rainfall, is still lying to the south of Sri Lanka. It will have to move further north and reach the peninsular latitude to join the monsoon party.

Thirdly, the pressure gradient that links the system to the `heat low' over western Rajasthan and adjoining Pakistan has still not evolved to the full potential.

For this to happen, the air pressure over the west of the country needs to climb down to a level in the region of 994 millibars.

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