The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon onset over Kerala, North-east likely tomorrow

There is an enhanced possibility that the initial pulse will bear down on the Kerala coast on Saturday itself, according to the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). Simultaneously, the onset will take place over the extreme parts of North-east as well.

This will go to substantiate the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) forecast that had fixed a six-day probability band for onset on either side of the mean of May 30.

Indications are that the monsoon pulse associated with the onset will carry some real punch, according to the NCMRWF, bringing isolated heavy rainfall to most parts of Kerala during the first three to four days. Forecasts put out by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are in agreement with this outlook.

On Thursday, the direction of prevailing winds shifted to westerly from being north-westerly overnight, and were blowing at speeds of 25 to 30 knots, said Dr K. Santhosh, Director, Met Office, Thiruvananthapuram. Widespread monsoon precursor rains continued to lash the State for the fourth day.

The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) of unstable weather activity, whose movement to the north till it aligns with the peninsular latitude decides the sustainability of monsoon pulses, was on Thursday located around Northern Sri Lanka, just south of the peninsular Indian tip. It had been lying to the south of the island till the day before.

Another favourable development was the increase in value of the pressure gradient that links the monsoon system to the `heat low' over West Rajasthan/Pakistan, Dr Santhosh said.

Monsoon in Lanka

Meanwhile, the NCMRWF said the southwest monsoon had reached Sri Lanka on the appointed day of May 25. The cross-equatorial flows that go into the making of the monsoon current are strengthening, and the Easterly Jet that carries it towards the peninsula is becoming increasingly prominent. The NCMRWF also detected a low pressure area that had formed over the Northeast Bay of Bengal. Model predictions indicate that the `low' is likely to move in a north-northwest direction. But this system will most likely weaken, given the cooler seawaters in that part of the Bay.

It will have no influence on the onset and progress of monsoon in North-east India.

Another low has taken shape over the contrastingly very warm waters of the Southwest Arabian Sea, packing winds reaching 30 kmph.

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