Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications
Monday, May 29, 2006
Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Monday, May 29, 2006 |
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Climate & Weather Industry & Economy - Climate & Weather Monsoon rains may hit Mumbai by Thursday Vinson Kurian
Widespread rains with scattered heavy to very heavy rains are expected to start in Konkan, Goa and the Gujarat region around Thursday.
Thiruvananthapuram , May 28 The rapidly progressing monsoon is likely to throw up a low-pressure area off the Konkan coast around June 1 (Thursday), which expectedly will push the rain belt into Konkan and Goa, including Mumbai. The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said there is a good probability of the `low' getting embedded into the prevailing north-south offshore trough. The system is seen moving northward subsequently, taking the rains into North Konkan and adjoining Gujarat by Friday. Under the influence of the low-pressure system and the strong monsoonal flow, heavy to very heavy rains are possible at a few places in these areas, Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the NCMRWF told Business Line. Widespread rains with scattered heavy to very heavy rains are expected to start in Konkan, Goa and the Gujarat region around Thursday. Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada may also receive fairly widespread rains during this period. A darer prediction came from Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather, the US-based private forecaster. The strong flows have prompted him to raise an alert about the possibility of cloudburst, resembling the one that battered Mumbai last July but not reaching quite that scale, striking the west coast early this week. Mr Andrews cited a strong upper trough south of Arabia and near the island of Suqutra, Yemen, off the Horn of Africa, as key weather systems. There is a solid swath of soaking rain reaching from the Arabian Sea trough east to the southwest coast "And every time-step through the end of the month on this model shows moderate to locally excessive rainfall reaching into southern India. It would not surprise me in the least to find rainfall of 50 cm somewhere along the western coast by the middle of next week," he said. The NCMRWF said South Rajasthan might also start receiving scattered rainfall beginning on Friday. Isolated rain accompanied by thunderstorm/dust storm activity is expected over North Rajasthan during the next three to four days. According to Dr Gupta, easterly winds have started penetrating the mainland into Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. This will help cool down the temperatures but will pump up humidity levels as well. These conditions may trigger not just the cool breeze that should settle in the mornings and evenings but raised thunderstorm activity also. Penetration of easterlies will also mean that the seasonal monsoon trough is gradually beginning to establish. Going forward, this will become the playground for Bay-generated monsoon lows and depressions to spin around in patterns and drive rain into some of the country's vital growing areas. On Sunday, the northern limit of monsoon passed through Vengurla, Bellary, Ongole and Gangtok (through Bangladesh). Weather model products indicate that monsoon current over Arabian Sea may remain strong during the next four to five days. It is expected to remain active over coastal Karnataka and adjoining North Kerala during the next 48 hours leading to its further advancement into remaining parts of coastal Karnataka.
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