The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon pauses, could revive to `shut out' briefly

Heat wave conditions prevail over most parts of Rajasthan, West Haryana and Northwest Madhya Pradesh where day temperatures hover around 45°C. Mumbai likely to get rains by Thursday, Gujarat the next day

WITH THE EARLY arrival of monsoon, farmers head for their farms on the outskirts of Bangalore on Monday morning. - G.R.N. Somashekar

Thiruvananthapuram , May 29

After running up the topography to an arc linking Vengurla to Gangtok, the southwest monsoon stopped for a pause on Monday and its northern limit did not make any progress with respect to its west-to-east alignment the previous day.

Though seen reviving sooner, any hint of the weather system turning to its legendary wayward ways could now get amplified as would emerge from the forecast for the period beyond the next four days.

According to the National Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), the strong monsoon current over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal would stay as it is and produce continued good rainfall over the West Coast and the Northeastern States for the next four to five days.

There are, however, early indications of the monsoon current `shutting out' temporarily beyond, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the NCMRWF. This is a situation that would need to be monitored closely.

Low pressure system

For the medium term, weather models continue to suggest formation of a low-pressure system off the Konkan coast around Thursday and its northward movement towards Gujarat. This may bring the monsoon cantering into North Konkan (including Mumbai) by Thursday and parts of South Gujarat by the next day.

Under the influence of low-pressure system and the strong monsoonal flow, widespread rains with heavy to very heavy falls are indicated at a few places in Konkan and South Gujarat.

But there is also possibility that this could push associated cloudiness into South Rajasthan and adjoining parts of Northwest India, dislodging the resident `heat low' east-southeast towards North India. This anomaly is fraught with the hazard of halting monsoon easterlies on their track into eastern as well as Northeast India.

Models also prognosticate the development of a strong sea-based disturbance over the Northeast Bay, which is seen spinning away in a north-northeast direction. The system could soak up available moisture to rain it down over Bangladesh/Myanmar at the expense of East India and Northeastern States.

The NCMRWF said favourable conditions have set in for monsoon to break in over the remaining parts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during next 24 hours. But there is little possibility of the system advancing further west at least until Saturday.

HEAT WAVE

Meanwhile, heat wave conditions prevailed over most parts of Rajasthan, West Haryana and Northwest Madhya Pradesh where day temperatures hovered around 45°C or more. Predictions indicate that heat wave condition over these areas is likely to abate after Friday.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall has been forecast at a few places over Lakshadweep, Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, South Konkan, Goa, Assam and Meghalaya over the next two to three days. It will be isolated places over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, South Interior Karnataka and Arunachal Pradesh.

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