Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications
Monday, Jun 05, 2006
Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Monday, Jun 05, 2006 |
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Climate & Weather Industry & Economy - Climate & Weather Monsoon weakens Vinson Kurian
The fears of monsoon `shutting out briefly' are more or less proving true. Crops sown in areas where the onset of monsoon is declared could suffer.
Thiruvananthapuram , June 4 A majority of weather models have indicated an overall weakening of the southwest monsoon over the next four to five days under the influence of invading westerlies sending the seasonal weather system off track. Rainfall will become pronouncedly scarce after Thursday, with meteorologists giving some allowance for a brewing low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal to mature but whose writ is now expected to run not farther than two days. Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said consensus model predictions suggest the `low' taking shape within the next 24 to 36 hours, only to come under a barrage of domineering westerlies. The probable course left to it will be to oblige the westerlies and be pushed east to pour its contents over the Arakan coast of Myanmar. It's possible that the system, which is inclined to move west-northwest by nature, strays into mainland India for a while giving some rain to Orissa and West Bengal before being spirited away. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) provides the only exception to this scenario wherein the `low' crosses into mainland India and moves north to Jharkhand, after being steered away from its west-northwestward course.
FLUID STATE
The formation of the `low' itself has been deferred by another day, the fourth time in succession. Speaking from his experience of 15 years of analysing leading weather models, Dr Gupta said the act of successive deferment reflects poorly on the forecaster's confidence levels in relation to a specific weather system. Replying to a specific question, he said the westerlies are seen dictating terms to regional weather for at least the next five to six days. Some models say they could be active until June 10 (Saturday next). Suffice to say that the northern limit of monsoon will stay frozen at the current levels for as long.
CROPS TO SUFFER
The fears of monsoon `shutting out briefly' are more or less proving true. Asked what this could mean for rain-dependant crops, Dr Gupta said those sown in areas where the onset of monsoon is declared could suffer. This is true for standing crops in peninsular India, especially in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra where the monsoon arrived ahead of schedule.
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