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Tuesday, Jun 13, 2006


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Markets - Technical Analysis


Volatile movement

K. Premkumar

Monday's market witnessed volatile movement. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains marginally bullish. Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. On the contrary, the prevailing sentiment reading is likely to be strengthened with additional counters.

Nifty futures

The June month contract gapped up by 16 points. However, bulls were not able to sustain their initial momentum and gave way to bears. June month contract moved with in an intra-day range of 160 points. It closed with a loss of 141 points from Friday's close.

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The long position in June month contract is under threat for Tuesday's trading. Long exit level & the short entry levels are placed just 2 points away from its last traded price. Bear move during Tuesday is likely to reverse the prevailing trend in June month contract.

Stock futures

The composition of the top-10 list remained unchanged. However, ranking of the list had a minor change. Tata Steel & Ranbaxy interchanged their rankings. The top-3 tradable counters in this segment were Reliance, Tata Steel and IPCL.

All the uptrend counters in the list are likely to be under threat for Tuesday's trading. On the other hand, downtrend counters in the list are likely to be safe. There are no buying opportunities for Tuesday's trading. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in seven out of the top-10 counters in the list. The best is likely to be selling in MTNL. This counter is in the up trend. Bear move on Tuesday is likely to reverse the prevailing trend in this counter.

Cash segment

The composition of the top-10 tradable counters had no changes. Ranking of the list had changes. ACC occupied the last rank in the list while Tata motors moved to ninth rank.

The downtrend counters in the list are likely to be safe for Tuesday's trading. On the contrary, all the up trend counters in the list are likely to be terminated. There are no buying opportunities for Tuesday's trading. Ample selling opportunities are likely to exist for Tuesday's trading. The best is likely to be selling in Maruti. Bear domination on Tuesday is likely to reverse the existing trend in Maruti.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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