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Thursday, Jun 15, 2006
Business Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Thursday, Jun 15, 2006 |
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Climate & Weather Industry & Economy - Climate & Weather Monsoon to revive as weak current by June 20 Vinson Kurian
Thiruvananthapuram , June 14
Consensus forecast by various numerical weather models indicate that the monsoon would revive by June 20 as a weak Arabian Sea current. Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said copybook sloshing of the west coast was ruled out mainly on account of flagging wind speeds. The signals to revival of monsoon rains are seen in terms of strengthening of the cross equatorial flows along Somalia coast (East African coast), winds gathering speed over South Arabian Sea and establishment of an east-west wind shear zone of monsoon turbulence across the extreme south peninsula by June 20. Wind speeds and moisture convergence are what drive a monsoon pulse. Winds blowing at less than optimum speed will scoop up much smaller amount of moisture across the ocean surface. The impending pulse will, therefore, make a less than spectacular approach to landfall over the west coast. A major irritant is the continued `active' status of the Southern Hemispheric Equatorial Trough (SHET). According to Dr Gupta, there is a remote possibility of that the SHET activity might weaken after June 21. This would mean the buzz shifting to counterpart Northern Hemispheric Equatorial Trough (NET), to give a corresponding boost to the monsoon pulse. But this is a scenario that needs further validation. Normal monsoon takes up to 12 days to run up the peninsula, before progressing into the rest of the country. It is, therefore, possible that the second pulse will take the whole of June to do this. At a time when Delhi normally gets splashed (June 28), it is more or less clear now that the delayed monsoon would not have moved much farther beyond the peninsula. Given this, monsoon could be delayed by eight to 15 days in much of the rest of India, including those not covered by the initial pulse, Dr Gupta said. Among those affected in Central India are East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra, all of which should have got rains by now.
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