The Hindu Business Line : We need to fight `the fatigue of Green Revolution'

Indian Agriculture in the New Millennium, edited by N. A. Majumdar and Uma Kapila, brings together articles by experts on policy and growth profile, investment and water, reforms and food security. Life and Work of M. S. Swaminathan, edited by Anwar Dil, celebrates the contribution of the great scientist to the field. The right diet for the weekend, says D. MURALI

Panic imports of wheat and sugar, a knee-jerk ban on pulse exports, silent suicides among farmers, and the much-hyped vegetable prices. Perhaps, we have been too busy with the Sensex and politics, SEZs and reservation, to notice a languishing larder and the famished farms.

"Independent India emerged as a food shortage economy after the partition of the country in 1947," recounts S.S. Johl, President, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, in his foreword to Indian Agriculture in the New Millennium, from Academic Foundation (www.academicfoundation.com). The two-volume publication, edited by N. A. Majumdar and Uma Kapila, brings together articles by experts on policy and growth profile, investment and water, reforms and food security.

The mid-1960s were when the country faced huge deficits in food grains, and "was considered to be basket case." Within about a decade, we became a foodgrain surplus economy, "with adoption of dwarf high yielding varieties of wheat from Mexico... and of rice from IRRI, Philippines." By early 1980s, we were having excessive build-up of foodgrain stocks.

The problem in the 1990s was one of plenty in food stocks, though more than a third of the population suffered from malnutrition. Another anomaly was the export of foodgrains to deflate the bulging stocks, at a net loss of Rs 4,000 crore to Rs 5,000 annually, even while "importing edible oils, oilseeds, and pulses costing over Rs 14,000 crore per annum."

The book opens with Bhupat M. Desai's analysis that shows how, between 1981-90 and 1991-2000, fall in production indices is uniform, be it of foodgrains or agriculture. However, the ratio of index of wholesale prices of agricultural to that of manufacturing has risen from 108 to 116.

To those who wail that the woes we currently harvest owe their origins to the seeds of globalisation, C. H. Hanumantha Rao says, "A sector as large as agriculture cannot remain insulated from the ongoing economic reform process in India for a long period." He warns, however, that liberalisation of agricultural trade will result in raising the prices of essential food items.

Rao sees real prospects for export of foodgrains, at least for a decade, "if the growth rate in foodgrains output of around 3 per cent can be achieved, as the domestic demand for foodgrains is unlikely to exceed 2.6 per cent per annum, with even 7 per cent growth in GDP." He cites Bhalla (1995) to state that in view of the experience of other countries, "the indirect demand for foodgrains as animal feed can be expected to rise significantly when per capita income rises."

Farmer can achieve parity with the manufacturer-purchaser of his produce only through group action, says V.M. Rao in an essay titled `Farmers in market economy.' An example he mentions is of soybean cultivation in Rajasthan. "Over the period 1982-83 to 1991-92, soybean area in Rajasthan increased from a little less than 12,000 hectares to over 1,70,000 hectares, production from a little over 6,000 tonnes to over 1,30,000 tonnes and yield from around 500 kg per hectare to over 1,100 kg."

Soybean is the most popular oilseed produced globally, informs a page on www.mcxindia.com. "The global production of soybeans is 170-185 million tonnes, which is 55-58 per cent of the global production of oilseeds."

A detailed chapter on agricultural price policy by S. S. Acharya explains how MSP or minimum support price is arrived at on the basis of eight concepts of cost.

On policy again, M. L. Dantwala says that the word `procurement' suggests compulsion, when there is none. FCI (Food Corporation of India) and the State agencies have only a right of pre-emption in purchase... In several years, prices offered have had the effect of arresting the decline in prices below the support level."

Indira Hirway's piece on droughts and scarcity informs how Muhammad Tughlak was `perhaps the first Sultan to take systematic steps to alleviate the effects of drought' by distributing grains during the famine of 1343.

More than five centuries later, in 1883, the British prepared the first Temporary Scarcity Manual.

During these days of scarcity, relevant read is the chapter on food security by P.S. George. "Food security means that individuals and households have access to sufficient food both in quantity and quality to meet their nutritional requirements," reads a definition. There are varied norms on per capita calorie requirement. For instance, ICMR (Indian Council of Medical Research) recommends 386 gm of cereals as the per capita daily norm, while "the Task Force of the Planning Commission has recommended 15.46 kg cereals per capita per month (515 gm per day) for the rural population for defining the poverty line."

According to the Task Force, calorie norm is 2,400 for rural areas, and 2,100 for urban, as against the NSS (National Sample Survey) norm of 2,700 calories per consumer unit. Alarmingly, 49 per cent of the rural individuals and 42 per cent of the urban ones had met less than 90 per cent of the calorie norm, just about a decade ago.

If all consumers are to achieve food security by 2015, the total cereal availability then should 234 million tonnes, writes George. "The implied compound growth rate of 2.3 per cent over the 1998 level of cereals availability appears to be within the reach."

The crucial issue, according to him, will be economic access to the poor, even though the physical access is within achievable limits. Problem that we currently face seems to be one of even physical availability of essentials such as wheat.

M.S. Swaminathan has written a chapter that redefines food security as "livelihood security for the households and all members within, which ensures both physical and economic access to balanced diet, safe drinking water, environmental sanitation, primary education and basic health care."

To achieve this, we need to fight `the fatigue of Green Revolution', he urges, and outlines many measures. One of these reads, "Surveillance and building food reserves to ensure food supplies at affordable prices and to provide incentives for the producers." A task that the present Government appears to have slipped from.

`There is no time to relax'

"Plants speak to human beings. However, they only whisper softly like a woman of great culture. They hence reveal their secrets only to those who are close to them. Those who spend their time in office rooms naturally think that plants are dumb."

That's a quote of the famous wheat breeder and Nobel Laureate, Dr Normal E. Borlaug, cited in one of the speeches by M. S. Swaminathan included in Life and Work of M.S. Swaminathan, edited by Anwar Dil, from EastWest (ewb@touchtelindia.net).

Borlaug finds mention in many places. Such as, in a keynote address in Budapest, six years ago, on the occasion of the International Wheat Conference. "There is no time to relax," Borlaug had said. Because, the projected global demand for wheat is projected to increase by 40 per cent by the year 2020. Also, two-thirds of the world's wheat consumption will be in developing countries.

"Between 1961 and 1990, yield increases accounted for 92 per cent of the additional cereal production in developing countries. In the years ahead, there is no option except to produce more from less per capita land and water resources," said Swaminathan at the Conference, and asked, "Can we sustain the yield revolution in wheat?"

As the Chairman of National Commission on Farmers, he recently voiced his view that the current wheat imports are a wake up call, occasioned by shortages caused by private players, despite good production.

NSS survey findings alert that nearly 40 per cent of farmers want to move away from farming. Food grain shortage is a real prospect, cautions Swaminathan.

Right diet for the weekend, instead of an expensive shopping trip to the local sabji shop.

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