The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon `low' deferred, but forecast maintained

Weather models have deferred the formation of the monsoon `low' over the Bay of Bengal but that has not prevented the southwesterly flows in the revived pulse from toying with the western coast in full force.

The act of deferment (from June 26 as first predicted) may signal reduced confidence levels in the event but the flows are expected to maintain strength at least for the next five days, said Mr J.V. Singh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). This is in line with the flip-flop course the monsoon has followed ever since its onset ahead of schedule this year, he told Business Line.

Latest assessment by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) indicates the `low' taking shape by June 29/30 (Thursday/Friday next) and intensifying rapidly. Around the same time, another `low' is predicted to form over the North Arabian Sea.

Assuming that the predictions hold, the two systems could combine prospectively to lend an explosive trigger for the monsoon to run up the scalded plains of North and Northwest India.

"But this is something which we can only wait and watch out for," Mr Singh said.

In comparison, the home-run NCMRWF model shows only the formation of a cyclonic circulation over the west-central Bay of Bengal. It also shows the formation of a monsoon-friendly north-south offshore trough over the Arabian Sea. Mr Singh did not rule out a `low' being thrown up here, given the strength of and moisture content in the flows.

While monsoon is expected to reach Mumbai anytime from now, Delhi may have to sweat it out till `some time after' the normal onset date of June 29. But the Bay `low' can swing the scales in its favour overnight, and spectacularly so in combination with the Arabian Sea counterpart.

Saturday's offshore trough from South Konkan and Goa to the Kerala coast now extends from further north in South Gujarat. Conditions are favourable for further advance of monsoon over entire Gujarat and Chhattisgarh, most of East Uttar Pradesh and to even parts of South Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh during the next three to four days.

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