The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon blushes

When the Kerala coast was battered by heavy rain in the last week of May, the Meteorological Department announced the early arrival of the monsoon. June proved that monsoon was nowhere in sight. A similar kind of forecast in May 2005 predicted a sub-normal monsoon and the year turned out to be the one with torrential rains across the country.

This constant forecast failures have made pessimists of many of us in aviation. We have learnt to use our own interpretations based on a ringside view of the actual weather conditions. The basic factor that we follow is the definition of monsoons, which is derived from the Arabic word for "wind". We do not go by the rain for "monsoon conditions".

Looking at the wind pattern, one sees is no real sign of the monsoon. The wind chart issued by the Chennai airport on July 4 indicated very light winds, with speeds of 20-25 kmph, against the normal 50-60 kmph, from the westerly direction. The easterlies at upper levels of the atmosphere are also far too feeble to be called monsoon currents. The winds near the Orissa coast, in the Gujarat region, and northern Maharashtra indicate the presence of cyclonic circulations, one in the Bay of Bengal and the other in the Arabian Sea. The rain in Mumbai is due to this circulation and should dissipate in a few days. The pointers are more towards a drought.

The deluge last July exposed the lack of infrastructure at the Mumbai airport. One would have expected preparedness on a war footing. Yet the last three days of moderate rain showed up the lack of planning. If the airfield cannot take even 15 cm of rain, air traffic is going to be shut down if the monsoon becomes really active.

There are no proper drainage facilities around the airport and there is no political will to clear the area of encroachments. With construction materials piled up everywhere and a "nullah" running through the airport area, there is no place for the water to drain. Mumbai has no option but to build a new airport if the operations have to be continuous, with or without monsoons.

(The author is an airline pilot with 19,000 hours experience.)

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