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Tuesday, Jul 25, 2006


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Markets - Technical Analysis
Bull domination

K. Premkumar

Bulls dominated Monday's trading activity. However, the sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bearish. Bull move on Tuesday is likely to change the sentiment reading in its favour. On the contrary the bearish sentiment is likely to be strengthened with additional counters.

Nifty futures

The July contract opened with a bear gap of around 21 points from Friday's close. However, the bears could not sustain the initial momentum and gave way to bulls. The July contract moved in a range of around 124 points making an intra-day high of 2996.10. It closed with a gain of around 53 points from its previous close.

The short position in the July contract remains intact. The short exit and long entry levels are placed quite closer to Monday's last traded price. In the normal course of trading during Tuesday, these levels are likely to be triggered.

Stock Futures

The composition and ranking of the top-10 tradable list had minor changes. Infosys moved out giving way to ICICI Bank.

ICICI Bank occupied fifth position while others moved down in their ranking. The exit levels for Hindalco and Infosys are placed at 157.65 and 1623.10 respectively. The top-3 tradable counters in this segment were Reliance, Tata Steel, and Satyam.

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Most of the counters in the list are in downtrend. The three uptrend counters in the tradable list are likely to be under threat during Tuesday's trading. The downtrend counters - Nalco, Hind Lever and Satyam are likely to be terminated during Tuesday's trading.

There are three buying opportunities and one selling opportunity for Tuesday's trading. The best is likely to be buying in Satyam. This counter is in downtrend. Bull move on Tuesday is likely to reverse the prevailing trend in this counter.

Cash segment

The composition and ranking of the top-10 tradable list had no changes. Most of the counters in the list are in downtrend while Satyam, Reliance Capital and VSNL are in uptrend. All the uptrend counters in the list are likely to be terminated during Tuesday's trading. On the other hand, all the downtrend counters except Maruti and Tata Motors are likely to be under threat for Tuesday's trading.

There are five buying opportunities for Tuesday's trading. The best is likely to be buying in Infosys. This counter is in downtrend. Bull move on Tuesday is likely to initiate a fresh uptrend in this counter.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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