The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon `gateways' in deficit as rains keep away

East and Central India have continued to be buffeted by heavy to very heavy rains over the past two days thanks to the presence of a well marked `low' even as a surprisingly rain-deficit monsoon `gateways' of Kerala and the north eastern States painted a worrying picture. Based on seasonal rainfall statistics available till July 26, Kerala (-20 per cent), Tamil Nadu (-32 per cent) and the North-East (ranging from - 22 per cent to - 38 per cent) provide glaring exceptions in what has been largely satisfactory monsoon coverage, be it temporal or spatial.

KERALA SURPRISES

"Kerala is a surprising omission from the excess/normal rainfall list at this time of the year while in the North-East, the typical seasonal flooding of the land has been largely conspicuous by its absence," says Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology. The sequential monsoon `low's originating from the Bay of Bengal have otherwise progressed in copybook fashion from the east to west, raining all the way across broad swathes in Central, north Peninsular and north India.

Even North-West India, save the sole exception of West Rajasthan (-36 per cent), has had a reasonably good outing during the season this year.

SMART GAINS LIKELY

The deficit showing contiguous met subdivisions (with percentage shortfall figures within brackets) of east Madhya Pradesh (-26); Chhattisgarh (-31); Marathwada (-28); Telengana (-41); and Coastal Andhra Pradesh (-21) are expected to make smart gains from the resident well marked `low' as also from the next system predicted to form by Tuesday/Wednesday.

This would still leave Kerala and the North-East in the red, which is striking to say the least considering their gateway status in receiving respectively the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal arms of the monsoon into the mainland, says Dr Gupta. The impact would be relatively less in Tamil Nadu, whose expectations from southwest monsoon are minimal.

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