The Hindu Business Line : Peace dam bursts in Sri Lanka

With the `water war' spilling over, the period of political engagement is over and yet another phase of military confrontation has begun in Sri Lanka. In Colombo, RASHEEDA BHAGAT traces the genesis of the latest conflict and gauges the mood in the capital where there is much despair for the economy, which has just now managed a turnaround.

Amid accusations and counters between the Sri Lankan Government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam — the latest is on the obstruction of a waterway by the LTTE, denying water to thousands of people in Seruwila in the Trincomalee region — the island nation is bracing for yet another phase of war.

That the period of fragile peace was over was signalled in April when the Tigers carried out a suicide attack on the army headquarters in Colombo, killing several soldiers and seriously injuring the army chief. The LTTE's next suicide mission was on June 26 when a motorcycle bomber rammed into the car of the deputy army chief, Major General Parami Kulatunga, killing him and reducing his car to cinders.

During the last seven days, the five-member Nordic mission monitoring the troubled truce it had worked so hard to put in place in 2002 is itself falling apart. Following the European Union declaring the LTTE a `terrorist' organisation, the Tigers had asked the EU members of the SLMM (Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission) — Sweden, Denmark and Finland — to quit. It remains to be seen how long the Norway-led initiative will remain in place.

Anyway, ask anyone in Colombo about the situation in Sri Lanka, they become grim. It appears as though the government and the LTTE needed just a handle to go for the trigger; and that came in the form of the Tigers blocking the sluice gates of an anicut on the Mavil Aaru, and the Sri Lankan armed forces launching operations to open it.

`Insult to humanity'

The last few days, this incident has been the lead story in all Sri Lankan newspapers, with the Prime Minister, Mr Ratnasiri Wickremanayake, describing the block as an "insult to humanity". Denying on Wednesday that it was the Sri Lankan government "which had restarted a war," he said, "obstructing water supply to thousands of Sinhalas, Tamils and Muslims living in Seruwila is an insult to humanity and it is the duty of any responsible government to clear such obstructions" and ensure this basic right to its citizens.

While this is the government line, some people in Colombo think the government had been "too hasty" in seeking a military solution to the water problem.

Prof Jayadeva Uyangoda, Head of the Department of Political Science at Colombo University, even described it "a military misadventure" by the Sri Lankan government. In an interview to Business Line, he said: "What was basically a water dispute has now escalated into military action. Okay, the Tigers stopped the water, but the government should have negotiated with the Tigers to resolve this problem by non-military means. My information is that the Trinco administration had come out with a proposal but the Sri Lankan government started dropping bombs while the negotiations were on."

One thing that is clear to any observer of Sri Lankan affairs is that the period of political engagement is over and yet another phase of military confrontation has just begun. Prof Uyangoda blames the Sinhala ruling class for what he calls its failure to solve the ethnic problem. He sees a growing "strong argument" within the Sri Lankan government that "whenever the Tigers do something that is not acceptable to the government they should be punished severely with immediate retaliation."

The JVP factor

Predictably enough, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) is at the forefront of such an opinion and has been campaigning for an all-out military offensive, saying the cease-fire is dead and that there is no point in talking to the LTTE, that this is a `false peace', and so on. The JVP offers several arguments to back its stand, says Prof Uyangoda, one being that the government should launch a military offensive to cripple the LTTE's capacity of major retaliatory response and to weaken it militarily. "The government thinks this is the best time to do that because that would give it an ideological political leadership for a major offensive against the Tigers. It also thinks that the Karuna factor has weakened the LTTE, and, above all, it wants to prevent the new Indian initiative."

The general opinion in Sri Lanka is that the "new Indian initiative" is to get the President, Mr Mahindra Rajapakse, and the Opposition Leader, Mr Ranil Wickremesinghe, to work together to find a solution. Prof Uyangoda thinks a new political balance will emerge either "after a major military confrontation between the two sides or after a series of long drawn military confrontations.

That certainly is not good news for the nation, whose economy has managed to pull back after years of lacklustre performance. The last quarter saw a GDP growth of 8 per cent which, as Mr Mano Selvanathan, Group Director of Carson Cumberbatch & Co that is into several businesses ranging from construction to mutual funds, points out: "may not be the best, but is still reasonably good." He thinks the economy is capable of registering a double-digit growth, but for that the government would have to have a vision and think out-of-the-box to solve the festering conflict.

"So far the Sri Lankan business community has been resilient and able to see the country through 6-7 per cent growth rate, but we are capable of doing much more." He says this year both industrial and agricultural growth has been good, and the services sector has taken off, with the BPO industry doing well. "But our infrastructure — roads, power, ports, etc — needs big investment and the government will have to go in for more private sector participation for this; there is no other way," he told Business Line.

Economic crisis

For the common people, the cost of living is escalating, though this has a lot to do with the rising oil prices globally. In the last one week, the prices of petroleum products have been hiked Rs 3-5 a litre by Lanka IOC and Ceylon Petroleum Corporation. But Prof Uyangoda sees a link between what he terms an `economic crisis' and the escalation in military engagement with the Tigers.

"Only two days ago, petrol prices were raised and this will have an escalating effect on everything. I think the government sees the political utility of a limited military operation, as did earlier governments. We have seen in the past that the Chandrika government, whenever there were economic problems, would launch military operations because they have political utility."

Even as I was sitting with Mr P. Saravanamuttu, Executive Director of the Colmbo-based Centre for Policy Alternatives, on Thursday morning, his mobile was constantly buzzing with SMSs, giving an update of the `heavy fighting' at Muttur, where the LTTE was reported to have `taken control' over some posts. Mr Selvanathan received a call from an associate who had managed to get out of the Trinco region where fighting is raging between the security forces and the Tigers.

`Adversarial system'

On the Indian `suggestion' that Mr Mahindra Rajapakse and Mr Ranil Wickremesinghe should work together to find a solution to the derailed peace process, Mr Saravanamuttu says: "Historically in Sri Lanka we've always had an adversarial two-party system," with each trying to score a political point over the other.

On the perception that the Ranil government had managed to do more on the peace process, he says: "At least that government did two things; it managed to get war out of the way, and managed to throw a political challenge to the LTTE." This it did by giving the LTTE funds and also some controls, "almost akin to killing with kindness. Ranil led the LTTE to believe and expect quite a lot which he really had no intention of delivering. The idea was to put them in a situation of `no-war-no peace'."

Well, that is no longer the situation on the ground with more war and less, or nil, peace. Can the Sri Lankan economy afford another period of protracted military engagement with the Tigers? Prof Uyangoda's response is scathing: "It can afford it, as long as Sri Lanka does not have any ambitions of rapid economic growth or improving the living conditions of its people. I think the new ruling class that has come into power is worse that the old ruling class. and probably the worst that we have seen since independence."

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in

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