The Hindu Business Line : Welcome, the old world order

It is ironic that even the leaders who call for the new world order and who, one would think, have the power to make it happen, are complicit in perpetuating the old world. From the various pulls and pressures around the world, mainly by the US and Russia, one wonders if the Cold War has indeed ended.

The more things change, the more they remain the same. That should be comforting for those who like status quo, but it is certainly confusing for those who believe that things are changing.

Take the Russians and the Americans. They are at it again. We are told that the Cold War is over, but is it? The Russians are worried about the eastward expansion of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation), and it has almost reached Russia's borders. Even though the founding purpose of NATO is gone, it still exists and is re-defining itself as a global police force, controlled by America.

That is not the way it was supposed to be. Moreover, all the countries to Russia's west — the former Soviet satellite republics — are smiling coyly at the US and the European Union. They have either already joined NATO or the EU, or have submitted their applications and are waiting in line for their turn.

At the very least, they are making all the right noises about free market and capitalism, hoping for increased Western aid for their struggling economies.

Cold War politics

The US is reaching out to Russia's backyard — a development that does not make Moscow too happy. Both countries were declaring their favourites in the elections in Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan.

The President of Georgia, Mr Mikheil Saakashvili, who has been very vocal about his pro-West views, was invited to visit Washington last week. Georgia shares borders with both Russia and Iran and so is an ideal candidate for the US to be friends with. Soviet technical colleges in Georgia are now called American schools and the language of instruction has switched from Russian to English.

So what do you think the Russians will do? They are making friends in the US' backyard, much to latter's discomfiture. They have chosen Venezuela, led by US' bete noir, Mr Hugo Chavez. He was invited to visit Russia and had a successful visit there.

Both countries don't like it when a member of their backyard looks elsewhere for help and support. Although the US has enough carrots to offer, such as market access or development aid to keep its friends happy, Russia is using its oil and gas to buy friends in the region all over again.

Meanwhile, the US and Venezuelan leaders regularly call each other names with a viciousness that would liken them to children in a middle school playground. Mr Chavez refers to the Bush set-up as a `terrorist administration' and says that the US is planning to invade Venezuela. Meanwhile, the US Defence Secretary, Mr Donald Rumsfeld, has likened Mr Chavez to Hitler.

Even the old trick of orchestrating a coup to replace an unfriendly regime has been tried. The US supported a half-hearted coup in Venezuela in April 2002.

It is said to have met with the conspirators beforehand and was the only nation to quickly recognise the new government, but Mr Chavez bounced back.

The US has placed a ban on sale of weapons to Venezuela, so Mr Chavez has found a ready supplier of aircraft and ammunition in Russia. Clearly, neither Russia nor the US have put away their Cold War play books; it is just being used in more creative ways.

Remember the Vietnam and the Korean wars? That was a playground for the superpowers too, where they indulged in proxy wars. The US first aided and then fought with the South Vietnamese, and with the South Koreans, against their Northern counterparts who were, in turn, being supported by China and the Soviet Union.

Same game, new parties

The game is the same, only the parties concerned have changed. Israel is using its US-supplied F-16s and other weaponry to bomb Lebanon to bits hoping to eliminate the Hezbollah in the process. Hezbollah, in turn, is using Soviet-designed Katyusha rockets allegedly supplied by Iran and Syria.

It is clear that while the US regularly announces regret for the civilians killed, it does not want to make any effort to stop the massacre in Lebanon at least till Israel has de-fanged the Hezbollah.

New world order

There is talk of a new world order. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the end of the Cold War , we had the warring parties wishing for and promising a new world order.

This would be an era of peace and harmony, they said. Then the Russian President, Mr Mikhail Gorbachev, in a speech to the UN General Assembly in December 1988, advocated strengthening the UN, and thought that superpower cooperation will end regional conflicts. Perhaps, the then US President, Mr George Bush Sr., was not too happy with that speech, for his vision of a new world order was markedly different.

In a speech before the US Congress in September 1990 titled `Toward a New World Order,' he thought a strong US will lead the world towards this new order.

But it turns out that even the idea of the new world order is old. In 1940, H. G. Wells wrote a book titled A New World Order where he hoped for a world without war, where law and order would be overseen by a world governing body.

Soon after the Second Word War, there was euphoria and everyone, especially leaders of a former warring nation, was expecting a new world order.

Although a world governing body, namely the UN, was created, there is little chance that the nations will give it the power to beeffective in settling disputes. For that would mean they really want a new world order.

Machiavelli, the 16th Century Italian author of the political treatise, The Prince, got it right when he wrote that initiating a new order of things is difficult, dangerous, and doubtful of being successful.

Yet, we all wish for a world very different than what we see around us. So much so, we are always calling for a new one.

And it is ironical that even the leaders who call for this new world order, and who one would think have the power to make it happen, are complicit in perpetuating the old world.

(The author is a professor of international business and strategic management at Suffolk University, Boston, US. His Internet address is cgopinat@suffolk.edu)

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