The Hindu Business Line : The two debates in Colombo

There are two interesting debates now on in Colombo. The first one obviously is a political debate and concentrated around whether the "low intensity conflict" now on between the Sri Lankan armed forces and the LTTE in the eastern district of Trincomalee will escalate into a full-fledged war.

The "good times", as they are called in the local lingo... the period between 2002 and 2004 when the Ranil Wickremesinghe government offered a ray of hope about the ethnic conflict coming to an end through a negotiated settlement with the Tigers, are clearly over.

Tension is palpable in the air. The Galle Face beach, where some of the city's best hotels are located, with the road on either side leading to the residences of both the President and Prime Minister, is teeming with armed security personnel. With gun-toting men obviously souring mood for outings after dark, the first casualties are the food vendors who offer a mix of cuisine on the beachfront. Even though the wares on offer are of indifferent quality, during normal times they get enough patronage from the tourists, local citizens who come to the beach for a whiff of fresh air, and of course the young couples indulging in sweet talk. With none of this category taking kindly to armed men butting into their evening outing with curt demands for ID cards, the crowd has thinned, affecting the business of the vendors.

A short 10-minute walk from the Taj Samudra to the Cinnamon Hotel (former Lanka Oberoi) is no longer pleasant in the evenings, because every few feet one runs into armed men peering suspiciously, making one wonder whether the walk from the hotel to the food court adjacent to Cinnamon is worthwhile anymore. After being stopped once and asked to produce one's passport, reason for visit etc, one decides it's more comfortable to reach out for room service at the hotel, giving a go-by to the sweet delicacies at Deli France, located in the same complex.

Even at the hotels, every vehicle is stopped and searched, particularly after dark. But if one goes by the number of wedding receptions on at the Taj, one wouldn't suspect that this is a society that is expecting the outbreak of war at any moment; at least the common man in the streets of Colombo seems to think so.

Political analysts and peace strategists, on the other hand, are hoping that both the Mahinda government and the Tigers, aware of the high cost of a full-fledged war, the destruction and human suffering associated with it, will do their best to prevent the military engagement from escalating.

Jehan Perera, Media Director of the National Peace Council, Sri Lanka, is hopeful that since the confrontation between the two sides has not been taken outside the Trinco district, "the high cost both sides have suffered due to this military confrontation will lead them to realise that the military option of dispute resolution is a high cost option and that negotiation and political compromise would be less expensive in achieving their objectives".

He puts the onus on the government for ensuring that hostilities do not escalate because "it is ultimately the government that controls the Constitution and the legal status of Sri Lanka."

While there is both criticism and disappointment in some segments of civil society that the Mahinda government has failed to keep the Tigers engaged in negotiation, Perera sees both "strengths and weaknesses" in the present administration. "The strength of this Government is that it has the support of all sections of the Sinhala ethnic majority in addressing the ethnic conflict. The Ranil government did not have that broadbased support among the Sinhala nationalists. But the broad based support that the Mahinda government enjoys has come at the price of not being far-sighted, sophisticated and acceptable to the ethnic minorities."

He feels that in an effort to keep all the Sinhalese segments on board - particularly the JVP and the JHU - it is catering to the nationalist segment of the population, "which in numerical terms is relatively small, but very active and vociferous, and this is its weakness."

As Dushni Weerakoon, Deputy Director at the Colombo based Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) puts it, such an uncertain situation "is not tenable in the long term. They now call it a low intensity conflict; but something is going to spark it off into a full fledged conflict once more. You can't control it and a political solution also seems far off; it needs compromise on both sides and I don't see it coming in the near future."

The other debate

If that happens, its cost on the economy - the other debate on in Colombo - will be tremendous, says Saman Kelegama, Executive Director, IPS. "If there is further escalation in military hostilities, the Defence expenditure will go up. This had dipped by 1-2 per cent of the GDP during the recent peace period, with the Government deciding not to rapidly upgrade some of its military equipment. But if war with the Tigers breaks out, it will have no choice and this would further push up the Budget deficit, which is already expected to be around 9-9.5 per cent this year, thanks to the various subsidies."

So was there a growing sense of disenchantment with this government?

"People are indeed worried about the cost of living going up - from August 1, petroleum prices have further gone up and will add to the inflation which is already in double digits - but they know the government has to manage a mini war with the LTTE and at the same time face international challenges like rising oil prices."