The Hindu Business Line : Plan to beef up medium-range weather forecast under study

Mission mode
The Government is considering converting the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting into a mission mode
NCMRWF has proposed a budget of Rs 450 crore for additional manpower, computer infrastructure facility and other capital expenditure

New Delhi , Aug. 10

Stung by the flash floods in three major States and frequent monsoon aberrations that hold the country's agriculture to hostage, the Government is mulling over a proposal to beef up the potential of medium-range weather prediction of increasing reliability and scope in real time, employing the latest numerical models and data assimilation techniques for the benefit of both the farming community and strategic planning.

Priority for research

Sources in the Government told Business Line here that the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has recently made a presentation to the Planning Commission with the evolving Approach Paper to the Eleventh Five-Year Plan emphatically stating that growth in agricultural productivity could be sustained only through continuous technological progress. This calls for "a well-considered strategy for prioritised basic research, which is now all the more urgent in view of mounting pressure on scarce natural resources, climate change and also the shrinking availability of spill-over from international public research", the Plan panel has said.

NCMRWF was set up in 1988 and total expenditure incurred in the project up to 2006 is Rs 201 crore. Since 2002, it has continued to function on the basis of year-to-year extension. The project began delivery of operational medium range forecasts to farming community and Indian Meteorological Department in June 1994. The Centre produces a wide array of global and regional atmospheric analyses and forecasts including ocean wave model for predicting ocean wave parameters up to five days ahead. It has purveyed forecast a week in advance to Crop Weather Watch Group that meets every Monday under the Chairmanship of Department of Agriculture and Cooperation.

Mission mode plan

In view of the strategic importance of agriculture in shoring up the income level of millions of farmers and in view of the dismal showing of the farm sector in the ongoing Tenth Plan (2002-07), the Government is considering to convert the Centre into a mission mode with the Prime Minister's Office ) taking up the initiatives in this regard, the sources said. NCMRWF has proposed a budget of Rs 450 crore for additional manpower, computer infrastructure facility and other capital expenditure. Outlining the challenges in its presentation, the Centre has said that there is urgent enhancement of observational network and said modernisation of IMD would help in availability of data. It said that as the country is investing in satellite programmes (INSAT, MT) proper use of this data is crucial for numerical predictions. It also emphasised the need for high bandwidth connectivity between data hubs and modelling centres to receive data in real time. NCMRWF has fostered competence in core areas such as modelling, data assimilation, pre and post-processing and determining users' needs.

The sources said that the Centre has told the Plan panel that it is ready and willing to steer the national effort on development of national forecasting model(s) for prediction of weather and understanding climate variability and change. It said the national coordinated modelling effort would invest the country with understanding of monsoon and its prediction.

Pointing out that the Centre is still in project mode, NCMRWF pleads for being accorded permanent status as Centre of Excellence for numerical modelling to ensure its accelerated growth in prediction capability.