The Hindu Business Line : Depression retains intensity

Thursday's depression over land managed to retain its intensity overnight as it moved west-northwest from Chhattisgarh to a perch traced to about 50 km northwest of Bhopal in Madhya Pradesh.

The system has been moving fast and is expected to park itself over the nearest part of Gujarat by Saturday evening, said Mr J.V. Singh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

BRIEF RESPITE

This would mean that the incoming system could cut down to 12 hours or so the interval that Gujarat hoped to get after a passing `low' dumped widespread rain in the latest spell over the past two-three days.

Consensus opinions veer round to giving the flood-ravaged State the benefit of a deserving break after the incoming depression passes further into the west.

But this may not last much long as a fresh cyclonic circulation has been forecast to take shape over the Bay of Bengal around August 22 (Tuesday next).

POSSIBLE `LOW'

The preparatory circulation is seen concentrating over Myanmar by Sunday in the latest indication that it is being driven in from the east as a remnant of one of the rampaging tropical storms in the Western Pacific (South China Sea).

Predictions by the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) indicate that this circulation could descend to the lower levels to set up what could possibly be the next `low.' A clearer picture on this is expected to emerge in the next few days.

The influence of the Pacific systems has been too strong and entrenched this time that east-to-west moving migrants set up a port of call in the Bay first before proceeding to march strictly to west-northwest. This is what has triggered the repeated flooding of Central and West India.

NO RECURVATURE

Not a single system did manage to undergo the odd `recurvature' that would have taken it along a more north-northeasterly direction. This could have brought the much-needed falls to the north eastern States, which are experiencing a heat wave during the height of monsoon.

That the monsoon did not go into a classical `break' did not help matters either. A break monsoon would have brought the seasonal trough to the east with the rain belt in tow. Even a significant weakening of the monsoon not amounting to a `break' would have sufficed, Mr Singh said.

"But what we saw instead was a procession of monsoon lows making a beeline to the west and northwest to the total disadvantage of the Northeast," he added. The week ending Wednesday (August 16) saw the region running up a massive 54 per cent deficit.

HEAVY RAINS

Meanwhile, the NCMRWF said the depression over land would cause widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over southwest Madhya Pradesh, southeast Rajasthan and Gujarat during next 24-36 hours.

Heavy to very heavy falls are likely at a few places over south-west Madhya Pradesh, south-east Rajasthan and Gujarat region during the next 24 hours. Isolated heavy falls also are likely over Kerala and coastal Karnataka. Monsoon activity over central and peninsular region may reduce after two days.

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