The Hindu Business Line : Dig into the Guv's bulletin to stock your statistics quiver

Much muck has been thrown at statistics. Everybody knows, for instance, Benjamin Disraeli's popular quote about `three kinds of lies'. Evan Esar defines statistics as `the science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.' To Morris Kline, statistics is `the mathematical theory of ignorance'. And to Jorge Luis Borges, `Democracy is an abuse of statistics.'

Despite all that criticism, numbers can and do educate and impress, challenge and stun, those in earshot, whether at meetings or parties. Not a bad idea, therefore, to be equipped with a well-stocked statistics quiver before you venture out. And, to those who want to recharge their data battery, a good source is the `Selected Economic Indicators' section in the latest issue of `Reserve Bank of India Bulletin' on www.rbi.org.in.

The two-page document, dated July 28, presents particulars under more than a score heads, beginning with the all-important GDP or gross domestic product, which is at Rs 26 lakh crore. This may rank past the top 10 ranks in the global list of wealthiest countries, but it is a matter of pride that our GDP has grown about four-fold from 1990.

But eight-fold is the growth of notes in circulation, compared to 15 years ago. From about Rs 50,000 crore in 1990 to more than Rs 400,000 crore in 2006. Have deposits also gone up likewise? About ten times, from less than Rs 2 lakh crore in 1990 to more than Rs 20 lakh crore currently. This, in spite of deposit interest rate falling from 8-11 per cent then to sub-3 per cent levels these days. No small worry for the old.

Well, what if you could add up all the small coins in everybody's pockets? How much would that be? A little more than Rs 2,500 crore. And rupee-coins are more than double that much, at Rs 6,000 crore. But total `money stock' in the country comprises not only notes and coins, but also deposits with banks, both demand and time.

At close to Rs 2,800 thousand crore, M4, as this money mountain is called in coded style, stands at nearly seven times the amount of notes in circulation. M4, if you look again, is nudging towards Rs 28 lakh crore, well past the Rs 26-lakh crore GDP that we had started off with. Before you gasp in surprise, please note that the GDP is at 1999-2000 prices. At current market price, GDP is Rs 35 lakh crore, with some cushion for M4 to still catch up.

Interestingly, wholesale price indices show a bright picture of no runaway increases in prices, with 1993 as base year. For `all commodities', we are paying just double, except for `fuel, power, light, and lubricants' where the index has tripled. Consumer prices, however, stand at about five times that of 1982 prices.

How are we doing on the foreign trade front? Both imports and exports have grown about six times, with imports inching towards $150 billion, while exports are edging beyond $100 billion. Forex reserves in the form of foreign currency assets with the central bank have grown more than 60 times, from $2 billion in 1990 to more than $145 billion and ticking, in 2006.

While an answer to the big jump in forex reserves may partly lie in the `invisibles' that don't show, true to their name, what is noteworthy is that the RBI isn't like the typical housewife, who likes to keep her spare money in gold rather than as cash.

Mint Street's hoard of the yellow metal was $3.5 billion in 1990. Fifteen years later, it was yet to cross $6 billion. Much like the abysmal accretion in the number on `live register' of employment exchanges, the last item in the `Selected Economic Indicators'. From 3.5 crore applicants in 1990, it has grown to only 4.2 crore now.

"Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support, not illumination," derides Vin Scully. Let that not discourage you.

Also, don't be ruffled if, when you launch into a statistical offensive, your audience begins to shift and move.

For, as George Bernard Shaw enlightens, "It is the mark of a truly intelligent person to be moved by statistics."

SayCheek@TheHindu.co.in

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