The Hindu Business Line : Rain deficit shrinks to 1 per cent

The overall area-weighted deficit in rainfall during the ongoing season up till Wednesday (August 23) has shrunk to one per cent on the back of monsoon activity scaling a new peak in the Northwest of the country, especially in Rajasthan.

Out of the 36 met sub-divisions in the country, 7 have registered `excess' rainfall, 17 `normal' and 12 `deficient,' according to India Meteorological Department (IMD).

NO BIG CHANGE

Actual rainfall for the season till date was 654.8 mm against the normal of 660.2 mm.

With the monsoon entering the withdrawal mode sooner than later, meteorologists do not expect a dramatic change in the overall rainfall profile.

The monsoon staged a sizzling run during the week under reference in the West and Northwest of the country. The met sub-division of West Rajasthan was swamped by successive `lows' sliding in from West Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Gujarat. The desert region recorded a surplus rain of +367 per cent.

Saurashtra and Kutch followed, but far behind in scale with a surplus of 88 per cent; Gujarat 82 per cent; East Rajasthan 64 per cent; and West Madhya Pradesh 24 per cent.

DEFICITS ELSEWHERE

Orissa (+145 per cent) and Gangetic West Bengal (+103) had set the trend as the systems travelled from East to West-Northwest. On the flip side, these surpluses merely managed to mask the huge deficits that some other met sub-divisions totted up as rainfall distribution continued to be lop-sided.

Those finding themselves in the red list during the week (in percentage figures) are: Kerala and Lakshadweep (-99); Haryana, Punjab and Delhi (92 per cent); Western Uttar Pradesh (-84); Marathwada (-78); South Interior Karnataka (-64); and Assam (-60).

The Northeastern States, the islands, Haryana and Punjab, Western Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry in the southern peninsula continued to register deficit for the season ending on Wednesday.

RAIN IN THE EAST

Meanwhile, the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting said on Friday that the `low' over Jharkhand and neighbourhood persisted. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely over interior Orissa, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh and Bihar during next 48 hours.

Rain activity over Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh could scale up over the next two days. The western end of the monsoon trough lay close to the foothills of Himalayas, while the eastern end meandered to the south dipping into Northeast Bay of Bengal. The western end is likely to shift further northward.

Models have now advanced the fresh `low' over the Northwest Bay of Bengal around by a day to Sunday. This will intensify rainfall activity over Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal.

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