The Hindu Business Line : Advanced weather forecast model for India by next year

An advanced forecasting model that predicts several types of extreme weather with substantially improved accuracy will shape forecasts that serve more than a third of the world's population by late 2007.

Developed in the US, the new model is being progressively adopted by the national weather agencies of Taiwan, South Korea, China, and India, said Mr Louis Uccellini, Director of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).

MASSIVE EFFORT

Among those who partook in the development of the model are the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and more than 150 other organisations and universities in the US and abroad.

Civilian and military weather forecasters in the US have already adopted the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for day-to-day operational use.

It is the first model to serve as both the backbone of the nation's public weather forecasts and a tool for cutting-edge weather research. Because the model fulfils both functions, it is easier for research findings to be translated into improved operational models, leading to better forecasts. The US National Weather Service has adopted this as the primary model for its one-to-three-day forecasts and as a key part of the ensemble modelling system for short-range forecasts.

`POPULAR MODEL'

The US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) also has used WRF for several areas of operations around the world. "The WRF model project is the first time researchers and operational scientists have come together to collaborate on a weather modelling project of this magnitude," says Mr Uccellini.

WRF is becoming the world's most popular model for weather prediction because it serves as forecasters as well as researchers," says Mr Tim Killeen, Director, NCAR. Tests have shown that the new model offers multiple benefits over its predecessor models.

For example, errors in night-time temperature and humidity across the eastern US were cut by more than 50 per cent.

The model depicts flight-level winds in the sub-tropics that are stronger and more realistic, thus leading to improved turbulence guidance for aircraft. The model also outperformed its predecessor in more than 70 per cent of the situations studied by AFWA.

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