The Hindu Business Line : Rain deficit slips back to 2%; narrowing trend reversed

The narrowing trend in the seasonal rainfall deficit has been reversed, with area-weighted deficit having grown by one percentage point to two per cent for the country as a whole as on August 30.

This is because the monsoon switched itself off over large parts of the country during the week ending concurrently - as abruptly as it had exploded over the northwest during only the preceding 10 days.

WEEKLY DEFICIT

The overall weekly deficit was 24 per cent, with individual shares of met sub-divisions ranging from 91 per cent in East Rajasthan; 79 per cent in West Rajasthan; to 96 per cent in Saurashtra and Kutch. The large rain surpluses recorded earlier were mostly mopped up in this manner.

Central and North Peninsular India as well as the extreme south also found themselves badly in the red during the week.

Seasonal rainfall figures show the rain-deficit areas having retreated to the far three corners - North, East and South. The normally arid Rajasthan in the northwest is in the `rain surplus' list as are the met sub-divisions of Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch, and Madhya Maharashtra in the west.

The only other region with excess rainfall was Orissa in the East, where most of the sea-generated monsoon systems had made a landfall before travelling in the customary west-northwest direction.

The Bay of Bengal is not finished yet, having lobbed in a depression that persists as on date over East Rajasthan, and churning to host the next `low' by Sunday (September 3) as per an update by the National Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

The depression over land is likely to move in a north-northwesterly direction and weaken gradually. Widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls are likely at a few places in West Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan during the next two days.

The system has set up an interaction with a western disturbance as predicted, and is likely to cause enhanced rainfall activity with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over the western Himalayan region and the plains of Northwest India.

FRESH CIRCULATION

A fresh cyclonic circulation is likely to form over Bay during the next two days, preparatory to the setting up of the `low.'

Coastal Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal may experience isolated heavy rains from Sunday onwards.

Heavy rainfall warning is valid for the next two days for a few places in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

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