The Hindu Business Line : Next cyclonic circulation over Bay by Sept 9

The latest `low' in the Bay of Bengal spun furiously to undergo two rounds of intensification and concentrate into a depression on Sunday evening itself. The system crossed the north Orissa coast early on Monday morning.

No sooner had the crossover taken place than the first few signals of a successor `low' brewing in the Bay started filtering in. According to the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), the preparatory cyclonic circulation is expected to form around September 9.

To form `low'

This circulation will most possibly be located in the west-central Bay of Bengal, off the Tamil Nadu coast. It is expected that this will descend to lower levels to concentrate into a `low' and move west-northwest to cross the Andhra Pradesh coast later, said Mr J.V. Singh of NCMRWF.

This will once again keep the monsoon live in the north peninsular, central and west/northwest India until mid-September by when, normally, monsoon withdrawal process would have settled into fast-forward. A well-defined anti-cyclone becoming dominantly present over Rajasthan spearheads the withdrawal process but there is no sign of this showing up any time soon.

Squally winds

Meanwhile, the depression from the Bay has crossed land and was anchored around Chandbali in north Orissa on Monday morning. Squally winds with speed reaching 50 to 60 kmph are likely along and off Orissa, West Bengal and north Andhra Pradesh for another 12 hours. It is more or less certain that it will move west-northwest and canter into north peninsular and central India.

Under its influence, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls are likely at a few places and extremely heavy rainfall (25 cm or more) at one or two places over Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal during the next 24 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places is also likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh during the same period.

Moving away

The west-northwest course will be maintained until the system reaches Madhya Pradesh. Eastern Uttar Pradesh, parts of southeast Rajasthan and adjoining Gujarat will also be brought under the cover of rains. A prevailing western disturbance, which combined with an incoming monsoon system from the southeast to produce some of the harshest rains in the hills of north India, is now moving away.

But another westerly system is expected to veer in from the northwest by Friday/Saturday.

According to Mr Singh, this is not seen as extending suitably into the south to set up any interaction with an incoming monsoon system from the Bay.

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