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Vinson Kurian

Lower over western MP likely to weaken

Thiruvananthapuram , Sept 6

The well marked `low' over Chhattisgarh retained its intensity overnight and moved west-northwest to lay centred over West Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood on Wednesday.

Far down to the south, a flare-up in the moisture-laden Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has caused associated clouds to mill around in the southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining northwest Indian Ocean.

The cluster is moving towards Kerala and southern Tamil Nadu, with parts of Sri Lanka also being brought under the footprint.

WELCOME RAINS

This will bring welcome rains to Kerala, south interior and coastal Karnataka and Tamil Nadu in a session that is expected to begin from September 8-9 and last 4-5 days as per initial assessment, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology.

The accentuation of the ITCZ will also have a rub-off effect on the cyclonic circulation expected to take shape in the Bay of Bengal off the Tamil Nadu coast by the weekend. It is prospectively expected to settle as a `low' in the Bay but Dr Gupta doubted if it would be able to intensify any further.

SHEAR ZONE

What the loaded ITCZ band will supposedly do is set up an east-to-west shear zone of monsoon turbulence with an embedded circulation. It remains to be seen how far this can evolve to become a potentially weather creating system since conditions over land are increasingly becoming unhelpful.

The eastern and north-eastern regions of the country will also start receiving rains along with Tamil Nadu in a pattern identified with this stage of monsoon.

Bihar, West Bengal and Jharkhand are expected to benefit in this manner, Dr Gupta said.

RAINS IN WEST

Meanwhile, the well marked `low' over west Madhya Pradesh is likely to move further west-northwest and gradually weaken over the next two days.

Widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls are likely at a few places over West Madhya Pradesh and south-east Rajasthan during the next 24-36 hours.

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over north Madhya Maharashtra, northeast Rajasthan and Gujarat Region during the same period. A western disturbance is likely to approach Jammu and Kashmir and the adjoining hilly regions around Saturday.

WITHDRAWAL PROCESS

The weakening of the well marked `low' will possibly coincide with the processing marking the beginning of withdrawal of monsoon, said Dr Gupta.

There would not be much moisture left over land in central or western India that could supply needed fuel to any weather system moving inland from the Bay.

In the words of Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com, at least for now, the withdrawal from the northwest to the southeast may have begun since he doesn't see anything that would speak of rain in northwest India.

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Fresh spurt of rains likely in Kerala, TN

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