The Hindu Business Line : Rain in South to sustain for 4 more days

The east-west shear zone of monsoon turbulence in the extreme south peninsula will continue to be active over the next four days as well, allowing rain pulses to arrive in batches over the region.

The shear zone became marked in recent times within the broader canvas of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the band of low-pressure area encircling the globe. Satellite pictures show clusters of moisture-laden clouds massing up around the peninsula.

RAINS TO SUSTAIN

Model predictions suggest that Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka and Kerala will receive scattered to fairly widespread rains during next 3-4 days, said an update by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting .

But it has deferred the outlook for the cyclonic circulation to form in the middle troposphere over the Bay of Bengal by at least a day to Wednesday. It is expected to descend to suitable heights to set up the next `low' over west central Bay of Bengal.

MAY PROSPER

Projections by both the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction and the European centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts say that the `low' will prosper in the fertile breeding ground of the ITCZ, and roll over into land later.

It is then forecast to move west-northwest and bring northern peninsular and central India under a fresh spell of rain. Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology said this was quite possible since there was no `conditional bar' on rains breaking out during this time of the year. The ITCZ will decide the limits of the geographical area that will be brought under rain cover as it slowly advances into the north, he said.

CONTRA-INDICATED

But the west and northwest of the country is contra-indicated for rains during September, when the monsoon trough is aligned along the foothills of the Himalayas. Rains can play around within an area bound by the monsoon trough to the northeast, west Madhya Pradesh to the west and the peninsula to the southwest.

In fact, conditions are now favourable for the monsoon to withdraw from extreme west Rajasthan. The withdrawal process can take place even as a wet session rolls to a start in the south peninsula — only, its progress to the northwest will be limited.

RAINS IN N-E

It's the weak monsoon phase and the withdrawal symptoms that drive seasonal rains to the northeast of the country. In fact, the unusual rainfall deficits in the region are being attributed to the fact that monsoon didn't go into its usual `break phase' any time earlier.

Meanwhile, there's a new tropical storm named `Shanshan' in the northwest Pacific but the forecast path shows a track to the northeast. Only storms taking a west-northwest trajectory could go on to influence the Indian monsoon, currently active in the east and northeast of the country.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather | Outlook

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page

Stories in this Section
Rain in South to sustain for 4 more days

Sensitive items imports up by 11 pc in April-May

57 M&As in Jan-Aug

AAI may raise Rs 4,000 cr for modernisation

Crude continues to slide on slowing economy

Volkswagen drives into Maharashtra

Can't afford computers? Just buy more mice!

GE picks HCL to set up development centres

Gold prices nosedive

Sensex sheds 368 on weak global trend

Sun Pharma under close watch

Monnet Ispat: Up on coal sourcing

HSBC to tap card venture to extend `merchant loans'

`Animation edge? Bangalore has IT too!'