The Hindu Business Line : Kharif grains, oilseed output may fall this year

The Agriculture Ministry's estimate of sugarcane output, at 283 mt — marginally higher than the 278.39 mt for 2005-06 — also seems somewhat conservative.

New Delhi , Sept. 15

The output of kharif foodgrains and oilseeds this year is slated to fall by nearly five million tonnes (mt) and 4 mt, respectively.

Tentative figures arrived at the two-day National Conference on Agriculture for Rabi Campaign 2006-07, which ended here on Friday, show total kharif foodgrain production for 2006-07 at about 105 mt.

This `first advance estimate' of the Agriculture Ministry is below the `fourth advance estimate' of 109.70 mt for 2005-06.

While rice production is slated to decline to 76 mt from 78.04 mt, the corresponding figures are 25 mt and 27 mt for coarse cereals, including 4 mt and 4.16 mt for jowar; 8 mt and 7.66 mt for bajra; 11 mt and 12.41 mt for maize and 1 mt and 2.3 mt for ragi.

Pulses production is, however, expected to go up from 4.66 mt to 5 mt, with output of tur (arhar) declining from 2.57 mt to 2 mt and rising from 2.09 mt to 3 mt for other pulses.

A more detailed picture of the first advance estimates would be available on Monday, Krishi Bhawan officials said.

The dip in kharif oilseeds output is equally sharp, from 16.84 mt in 2005-06 to 13 mt in 2006-07, with both groundnut (6.22 mt to 4 mt) and soyabean (from 8.35 mt to 8 mt) expected to be lower.

The Ministry is also projecting a fall in cotton output, from 19.57 million bales (of 170 kg each) to 18 million bales this year. This goes contrary to the Cotton Advisory Board's estimates, which suggest an increase from 24.4 million bales to a record 27 million bales.

Similarly, the Agriculture Ministry's estimate of sugarcane output, at 283 mt — marginally higher than the 278.39 mt for 2005-06 — also seems somewhat conservative, given the country's sugar production in the upcoming crushing season is expected to hit 23-24 mt. This is above the previous high of 20.15 mt in 2002-03, when cane output amounted to 287.38 mt.

Production of jute is expected to go up from 9.89 million bales (of 180 kg each) to 10 million bales, with that of mesta rising from 0.86 to 1 million bales.