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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , Sept. 19

The peninsular weather has come under the influence of three weather systems acting concurrently in the ocean basins. A third and the latest of the low-pressure areas materialised over the Bay of Bengal late on Monday, to the immediate east of an existing system.

The Arabian Sea has already got an active system located east central to the Saurashtra region, said the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). It has an associated offshore trough that runs down to the Kerala coast.

LESS MARKED

With a second system churning to its east, the existing `low' in the Bay of Bengal became less marked on Tuesday. However, the associated upper air cyclonic circulation continued to hover in the region.

The India Meteorological Department said the new `low' had become already marked by Tuesday evening and is priming to concentrate into a monsoon depression. This will trigger a fresh spell of rain in East India from Wednesday.

PACIFIC `PUSH'

The influence of a hyperactive western Pacific on weather conditions in the Bay of Bengal became increasingly evident with the formation of the new `low' even as a preceding `low' was active to its immediate west.

Super Typhoon Shanshan that roared across the northwest Pacific died out to give way for the next typhoon, Yagi, formation of which was notified on Tuesday. According to the London-based Tropical Storms Risk (TSR) Group, `Yagi' is set to become a Super Typhoon (at least a Category 4 storm) by the weekend.

Remnants from `Shanshan' and `Yagi' are believed to have drifted into the Bay to set up `lows' one after the other, say meteorologists.

RAINS IN EAST

According to the NCMRWF, the two weather systems in the Bay are expected to cause widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, coastal Orissa as well as the hinterland, West during the next two days.

To the west of the peninsula, the `low' and the offshore trough are likely to bring fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Konkan, Goa (including Mumbai), coastal Karnataka and Kerala.

SCATTERED IN HILLS

Model predictions suggest that a western disturbance is likely to approach Jammu and Kashmir, and adjoining areas during the next 24 hours. Under its influence, scattered rainfall is expected over the hilly regions and the adjoining plains of Northwest India.

Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com quoted consensus models suggesting that the Arabian Sea `low' will fade in its import for the subcontinent, as it is shown to drift towards the south and west. At the same time, the `low' in the Bay is seen to strengthen and rotate to the northwest before crossing land.

Both the systems are bracing to set up a complex interaction, with heavy to locally excessive rains indicated over eastern India (northward from the Andhra Pradesh coastal bend) into Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan.

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