The Hindu Business Line : Views vary on course of Arabian Sea storm

The low-pressure area in east central Arabian Sea has been elevated as a tropical storm (or depression), but opinions vary on the likely course it will take.

Also on Thursday, the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) confirmed that the southwest monsoon has withdrawn from most of west Rajasthan and even parts of Punjab. The withdrawal line passed through Ferozepur, Churu, Jodhpur and Barmer.

VARYING VIEWS

Several weather models seem to indicate that the Arabian Sea system will move west-northwest, away from the Indian coast. Others advocate a north-northeast course towards Gujarat or adjoining Pakistan coast.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) says that the system (after weakening to a `low') will drift to the east, nearing the south Gujarat/Maharashtra coast.

RAINS INDICATED

This could bring more rains to the west coast and the Western Ghats hillsides. Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com favoured an eastward movement for the system. "Seawaters here are warm enough to support a minimal tropical cyclone," he says.

Dr Ranjeet Singh of NCMRWF said the system was located far into the sea to make any impact for the Indian coast. Tropical weather systems shift positions too often and can prove the best forecasts wrong.

DEPRESSION IN EAST

Meanwhile, the other well marked `low' over land (Gangetic West Bengal) also intensified into a depression on Thursday and lay over Jharkhand with its centre close to Jamshedpur.

Rain-bearing clouds have bridged the gap between the two prevailing depressions, spreading along a wide axis of a low-pressure trough in the upper atmosphere (or shear zone of monsoon turbulence). The northern limits of these clouds have neared the eastern Himalayas, says Mr Andrews.

WIDESPREAD RAIN

The NCMRWF forecast said this depression is likely to move in a northwesterly direction. Under its influence, widespread rainfall is likely over Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, north Orissa and north Chhattisgarh during the next 24 hours.

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over Bihar, south Orissa, south Chhattisgarh and north coastal Andhra Pradesh. The rain belt is likely to shift towards east Madhya Pradesh and east Uttar Pradesh after 36 hours.

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