The Hindu Business Line : In the land of rising nationalism

Japan's Prime Minister-elect, Mr Shinzo Abe, thinks the country cannot continue the way it has, and wants to revise the pacifist constitution and education to emphasise moral values, patriotism, and tradition. Though popular with people, his unapologetic nationalism may irk neighbours in East Asia. It may also ruffle political feathers at home, hurting his efforts to get the economy, just coming out of deflation, going.

A new son is rising in Japan and has all the potential to raise temperatures in East Asia, perhaps the most important economic region in the world today. Elected leader of the New Liberal Democratic Party, Mr Shinzo Abe — son of a former Foreign Minister, Shintaro Abe, and grandson of Nobusuke Kishi, a Cabinet Minister who was imprisoned as a war-crimes suspect but who became Prime Minister — may re-define Japanese nationalism like never before. His predecessor, Mr Junichiro Koizumi, may have visited the Yasukuni war shrine, but Mr Abe is quite likely to enshrine nationalism itself.

Mr Abe saying in a recent televised debate before his election that, "Rather than getting praised for wrestling a good round of sumo under the rules that foreign countries make, we should join in the making of the rules... I believe I can create a new Japan with a new vision," reveals the 51-year-old new leader's hawkish stance.

Lingering war memories

This is no doubt worrying for the neighbourhood, where memories of the Second World War still linger. Japan's aggression on China and Korea — and to a lesser extent elsewhere — remains a major source of resentment in these countries; Tokyo's failure to apologise has intensified their sense of grievance. The election of Mr Abe, Japan's first post-War-born Prime Minister, threatens to exacerbate these tensions.

Since the Second World War, Japan has been a pacifist society, content to be sheltered by the US's military umbrella. But the gradual change in recent years, hastened by Mr Koizumi, in Tokyo may be predicated on facing up to a nuclear North Korea and, more important, the emerging military and economic powerhouse — China. After North Korea's missile tests last July, Mr Abe suggested that Japan acquire a pre-emptive military capability.

Seen as a natural successor to Mr Koizumi — indeed he was handpicked by the outgoing Prime Minister — Mr Abe thinks that Japan can no longer be the country it has been. He wants to revise the US-imposed pacifist constitution and the Fundamental Law of Education — which was enacted in 1947 as the basis for post-War schooling — so as to emphasise moral values, patriotism, and tradition. As Washington Post's Anthony Faiola reported Mr Ichita Yamamoto, an LDP legislator and close Abe ally, as saying: "We cannot sit back in the face of new dangers...Under our current constitution, if a US ship is attacked aside a Japanese ship, we cannot even fight to defend our American allies. What kind of partner does that make us? We are living in a more dangerous world and it calls for a strong leader."

More equal relation

Thus, though he is likely to maintain Mr Koizumi's emphasis on the US-Japan alliance, Mr Abe also appears to want to be a more equal partner. According to some analysts, he will strive for a version of Washington's relationship with London; closely cooperating with the US military but acting independently if a situation warrants it. Though with the rise of China, the alliance with the US can only become even more important, and, as Martin Jacques wrote in The Guardian, with the Americans' encouragement, Japan will continue to assume a wider global role. It would also be in Washington's interest to have an ever-stronger Japan to counter-balance China. Though the US may see a similar role for New Delhi, India is still an emerging power.

But in this role, Mr Abe will face a challenge in East Asia, where he is seen with much wariness, especially by China. Indeed, Beijing has already indicated that Mr Abe's desire for an early summit meeting with President Hu Jintao is not likely to happen unless he rules out visits to the Yasukuni monument to militarism and fascism. A more circumspect South Korea expressed the hope that the launching of Abe's government would improve ties into a `future-oriented' relationship after settling bilateral conflicts.

Though Mr Abe's hawkishness has won him public support, it is not certain if it will also translate into political strength to pursue his politics. But, as The Yomiuri Shimbun reported, Mr Abe seems to have done everything he can to form the party's new leadership line-up.

"To build a strong team so the party can deal with two important tasks — realise policies under his government and for the LDP to win the House of Councillors election next summer — Mr Abe appointed Research Council Chairman Hidenao Nakagawa to the post of party secretary-general, the most important party post after the presidency... As the party's Policy Research Council chairman, Mr Nakagawa was at the forefront of compiling this year's basic policies on economic and fiscal management and structural reforms that will be used as building blocks by the Abe administration. Mr Nakagawa also has close personal ties with party heavyweights, including Mr Mikio Aoki, chairman of the LDP's upper house lawmakers' caucus."

The challenges for the Abe administration at home are many. As the Japanese newspaper said, it must ensure economic growth remains stable and address rehabilitation of state finances. It also must not shy away from reform of the social security system and education. The new LDP secretary-general will face the challenge of gearing the party to actively address these issues and to support the new administration. But if the Abe administration successfully carries out policies under such circumstances, public support for Mr Abe as prime minister "will snowball and he will gain popularity as the `party's face' for elections, including the upper house election. Mr Abe apparently calculated his pick as new party secretary-general will help bring about such a scenario."

Economy worries

For Mr Abe, a key responsibility will be to nurture the economy that is just emerging from a prolonged slump that began in 1989 with a stock market crash; persistent deflation then lowered wages and discouraged investment.

For years the Bank of Japan took a passive approach before aggressively boosting the money supply in February 2003 to keep the yen weak. That, combined with cost-cutting by Japanese exporters, has led to a rise in business profits, and foreign investor interest.

With unemployment at its lowest in eight years, it appears Japan's era of deflation has finally ended (though six months later than expected); in July 2006 the Bank of Japan raised interest rates above zero for the first time in almost five years.

In the long run, as The Economist says, Japan needs to cut public spending and cope with a declining population and a shrinking workforce. Worries about inequality are also surfacing.

Reforms introduced by Mr Koizumi have been limited. Distrust of "market fundamentalism" from old-guard politicians and business interests, and a lack of strong corporate governance, hinder Japan's economic growth.

As the world's second biggest economy, what Japan is and does will be closely watched for the impact its actions can have, globally, but especially in the immediate neighbourhood. It now remains to be seen if the Japanese sun scorches or glows.

Compiled by J. Srinivasan

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