The Hindu Business Line : Rain forecast as circulation lingers over west coast

Remains of Tropical Depression 05D spinning in from the Bay of Bengal continue to cause showers in western India, amidst indications that a successor system may well be brewing.

This is expected to grow out of a pulse from Typhoon Xangsane. A preparatory cyclonic circulation is expected to form over the Andaman Sea by Thursday, says the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting.

RAINS FOR WEST

The `low' from 05D has been traced to over madhya Maharashtra as a cyclonic circulation on Tuesday. It still can turn in a soaker, despite forecasts of a westward movement with a weakening trend. Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa and north interior Karnataka are likely to receive fairly widespread rains. Substantial rainfall is indicated along the Western Ghats and the Arabian Sea coast for several days to come, says Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com.

TRANSITION PHASE

The blow-up in this manner along the west coast is natural at this time of the year when southwest monsoon gives way for the northeast monsoon, says Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology.

In what can be identified as telltale signs of the transition, the rain belt moves southward ahead of a withdrawing southwest monsoon. Rains become concentrated within the peninsula, which tunes itself to receiving the north-easterly winds.

CRUCIAL DIFFERENCE

But there is a crucial difference in the rainfall pattern under the two systems. Rains are assured over the coast and comparatively less so in the interior during southwest monsoon, while the reverse becomes true in northeast monsoon.

Rain variability is high along the coast, while it pours in the interior during northeast monsoon. This is an enduring paradox of the monsoon system, Dr Gupta said. This should also explain why the spatial and temporal distribution of southwest monsoon, like the one just ended, leaves much to be desired even when overall rainfall statistics are quoted to classify it in the `normal' category.

Meanwhile, the NCMRWF said on Tuesday that the southwest monsoon had withdrawn from remaining parts of west Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, many parts of east Uttar Pradesh, west Madhya Pradesh, north Gujarat and some parts of Bihar and East Madhya Pradesh.

FORECAST FOR CHENNAI

In separate forecasts for Chennai, Dr Gupta said the possibility for evening/late evening rain remains high till Sunday. The odds are stacked especially high (up to 70 per cent) for October 6 and 7.

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