The Hindu Business Line : 40 countries face food shortage

Weather-hit
World cereal production now stands at 2,013 mt, 8 mt down from July report.
Dry weather is affecting the wheat in Australia, Argentina and Brazil.
It also raises concern for the second paddy crop in Asia.

Kochi , Oct. 15

Even as the world is celebrating the "World Food Day" on Monday with the theme "Investing in Agriculture for Food Security", 40 countries worldwide are facing food emergencies and requiring external assistance.

According to the FAO, low supplies call for a closer monitoring of the world food situation.

Despite good crops in many of the low-income food-deficit countries, this year's anticipated sharp fall in global stocks may lead to a more precarious situation next season should weather problems prevent an increase in world cereal production in 2007.

Fall in foreign aid

Meanwhile, it said, foreign aid to the agriculture sector has fallen from a total of over $9 billion per year in the early 1980s, to less than $5 billion in the late 1990s.

At the same time, an estimated 854 million people around the world remain undernourished.

Only investment in agriculture - together with support for education and health - is likely to be able to turn this situation around, it pointed out.

FAO forecast

The FAO's latest forecast for world cereal production in 2006 now stands at about 2,013 million tonnes, almost 8 mt down since the previous report in July and 1.6 per cent less than the 2005 level.

Therefore, "the main concern is the declining stocks and whether supplies will be adequate to meet demand without world prices surging to even higher levels," the report said.

Prospects for the 2006 world cereal harvest have deteriorated further since July, according to the report.

Exceptionally hot and dry weather is adversely affecting the wheat crops in Australia, Argentina and Brazil.

While drier-than-normal weather in parts of South Asia is also raising some concern for the second 2006 paddy crop.

Domestic situation

Even though India does not fall in the list of 40 countries, following depletion of stocks, the country may have to import an estimated six million tonnes of wheat in 2006-07 to replenish stocks.

In turn, this has resulted in the country changing its trade position from a large net exporter to a large net importer.

The country's 2006 wheat output is officially estimated at 69.48 mt, 1.2 per cent above the reduced crop of the previous year, but 0.5 per cent below the five-year average, the report said. According to the FAO, in India, the 2006 southwest monsoon has been close to the long-term average in terms of the cumulative rainfall amount, but with highly skewed distribution.

Harvesting of the 2006 main kharif rice, coarse grains, oilseeds and groundnuts crops has begun.

The kharif rice production this year is forecast at 76 mt, some 2.7 per cent higher than last year's good harvest.

The aggregate output of the 2006 milled rice crop is forecast at some 93.3 mt, some 2 m t above the good level of the previous year.

Unprecedented floods caused by several weeks of torrential rain have left millions of people in India and Pakistan homeless and in need of food assistance, it said.

In China, the worst drought in 50 years has affected more than 3 million hectares of crops in Sichuan and Chongqing, it added.