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Vinson Kurian

But no sign of `low'/depression materialising over the Bay

Thiruvananthapuram , Oct. 19

India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared late on Thursday evening that the northeast monsoon has set in over the southern peninsula.

Seasonal rainfall has commenced over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and adjoining parts of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, it said.

Northeast monsoon has been active in coastal Tamil Nadu also, coinciding with the passage of an easterly wave.

But Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com contends that it's still the `monsoon transition phase', which ushers in the rainy, early phase of the north-east monsoon.

Better organised

Easterly winds have become better organised over the Bay of Bengal, which may have prompted IMD to take a call. The winds are expected to gather strength and strike better depth from Monday onwards, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology.

This will be reflected in a marked increase in the intensity of the rainfall. But, there was no sign yet of an organised `low'/depression materialising over the Bay.

Onset features

There are no established signature features associated with the "onset" of the northeast monsoon — except in the increase in rainfall activity over Andhra Pradesh-Tamil Nadu coasts towards mid-October.

It is a `residual southwest monsoon' at best, said Dr Gupta. Onset features are conspicuous by their little or nil presence, unlike in the case of the southwest monsoon.

Normal date

Normal date of onset of the northeast monsoon is around October 20, with a deviation of about a week on either side. It rains in spells of about three to four days. There are also long spells of dry weather with little or no rain, at times.

This is the main rainy season for Tamil Nadu, accounting for about 48 per cent of the annual rainfall. Coastal districts of the State get nearly 60 per cent of the annual rainfall and the interior districts, 40-50 per cent.

IMD has warned of isolated heavy rain over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and Kerala during the next 48 hours.

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IMD declares onset of N-E monsoon

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